Empiricalanalysis On Chinese National Debt's Effect On Economic Growth

After the capitalist countries experienced the Great Depression in 1929-1933, to Keynesian theory of effective demand, led by the theory of state intervention in the economy of Western countries to increase government fiscal deficit provide a theoretical basis,then the debt policy playing an important role in promoting national economic growth around the world.Since 1981, the State Council of China to re-activate a major policy decision of government bonds , the China's national debt scale expansion rapidly, to 2009, China's national debt balance reached 60.237068 trillion yuan. Asian financial crisis in 1997, China by issuing bonds, increasing government investment to stimulate economic growth. Treasury to promote the implementation of the policy to increase government investment, and actively promote the private investment and stimulating domestic economic growth, China's economy maintained a relatively high growth. Beginning in 2008 by the global financial crisis, China's export setback, economic downturn, our government through the issuance of bonds, led local governments to guide investment to promote economic growth, while the State Council in 2009 approved the issuance of local bonds. Treasury whether the country's economic growth has a direct stimulating effect? Based on the theoretical model of economic growth, analysis of bond investment to China's economic growth factors, and use my years of economic data from 1994-2009 using an empirical analysis of statistical measurement software, empirical results show that impact economic growth in China mainly consumption, private investment and import and export, investment in bonds directly to me, pulling effect of economic growth is not very clear; to bond investments and expansionary fiscal policy of the government played a major role is to lead. This paper analyzes the implementation of the national debt policy and debt policy of the actual results produced by the process of implementation issues and the conclusions of the analysis, combined with China's national debt and local debt policy recommendations accordingly.