Based On Gray System Theory Construction Projects, Preliminary Risk Evaluation

The project risk has appeared in its construction earlier period. But at present, the project risk research mostly focus on its implementation process, and there are not many to its construction preliminary stage. On the other hand, the risk assessment is one of the most important contents of risk research. Therefore, risk assessment research must have to be strengthen for the project construction preliminary risk research, which could provide the basis of the decision-making.This article take the risk management knowledge as a foundation, proposed the project construction preliminary risk assessment index system and constructed the grey system theory appraisal model with our country construction actual situation and followed the principle of qualitative and quota and the fundamental research and the real diagnosis analysis.At last,this article has confirmed the index system and the appraisal model scientific nature and the feasibility through the example which establishes. The article's main research conclusion are as follows:(1)Carring out the limits to our country engineering project construction earlier period work and pointed out the risk of the engineering project construction preliminary stage mainly include the written proposal stage risk, the feasibility study stage as well as the design stage.(2)Combing the literature survey procedure and the consultation of the expert, which constructes the preliminary risk assessment target system with 7 level targets and 17 two level of target engineering project construction, And proposed the target bestows on the power with the foreword relations law. It has analysised the present risk assessment method and constructed the grey system theory risk assessment model.(3)Assessing a heating industrial project at the construction preliminary period and obtains this heating industrial project risk item construction preliminary risk to be in "lowly" the level conclusion and confirmes the scientific and feasibility of the target system and the appraisal model with the engineering project construction preliminary risk assessment target system and appraisal model.