Research, New Product Development Opportunity Based On The Option Game Theory

Along with market trend continuously strengthened, the competition between enterprises gradually tends to white-hot, and new product development has become a very important work in modern enterprise management. How to scientifically evaluate the new product development decision-making become the key problems of management practice. The traditional evaluation method provides important quantitative basis for the new product development decision-making, however the enterprise is faced with many uncertainties in the new product development of decision-making process, so traditional investment evaluation method unable to reflect flexibility value of new product development decision so that can't assist decision-maker to make scientific analysis and evaluation. The real option method while considering the enterprise value of flexibility decision, but it does not consider the rival interactivity of new product development decision, so the real option method can't complete assessment enterprise to develop new products. To assess the value of new product development based on option game theory, considering the flexibility between the new product developers and the traditional competitive, makes the decision-making method for new product development value evaluation tend to be more objective.Established on the domestic and overseas scholars study the basic of option games, the paper firstly elaborates option game theory and methods and new product development of relevant theoretical foundation; Then, analysis the new product development with the option games according to new product development features, in consideration of the demands and costs of new product development double uncertainties, introduce alternative coefficient between the new product and the old product established the optimal new product development timing option game model of symmetrical and asymmetric cost and analyzed under various models of two of the enterprise competition strategy equilibrium and the parameters in the model of static analysis, finally, through the simulation research, the paper use the optimal timing model of new product development to analyze and evaluate enterprise decision of new product development, respectively obtained two oligarchic competitive enterprise under the symmetrical cost condition and asymmetric cost condition of the new product development optimal timing. At the same time, using the data of the main parameters of the new product development optimal timing decision model under the condition of cost asymmetry have been discussed by the comparative static analysis with matlab7.0.1.Research results show that, with the increase of market volatility, competitors will delay the timing of the new product development, namely market uncertainty weakened investor enthusiasm. With the greater correlation between demand and cost, competitors will develop new product in advance; with the greater alternative coefficient between the new product and the old product, competitors will develop new product in advance; with the increasing of the risk-free rate, the time of enterprise develop new product will in advance, while with the increase of cost asymmetry, competitors will delay developing new product.