Industry Effects Of Monetary Policy In China Empirical Research Evidence, Based On Agriculture

It is a effective measure to effectiveness of transmission mechanism of monetary policy that industrial effects of monetary policy.In specific, including the output effect and price effect to the implementation of monetary policy on the industry and its sub-industries. These effects be used to test the effects against implementation of monetary policy.Agriculture has always belonged to the basis for the national economy constitution as an important bolstering for the development of secondary industries and tertiary industries.It has always focused on the aspect of fiscal policy to industrial effects of agriculture against backdrop of general macroeconomic policy.However,it is singularly to focuse on the aspect of monetary policy.This thesis will use the research results from the relevant experts and scholars for reference is based on agriculture and its sub-industries as a research sample, meanwhile using econometrics approaches to analyse the industrial effects of monetary policy.At first, the thesis mainly portrays the background and significance of research topics, and describes the research contents, methods and technical route and accounts for the paper's innovative points and shortcomings.As well as conveys that the important types of theory to monetary transmission mechanism, along with situation of study of domestic and abroad to the industrial effects of monetary policy. Secondly,the paper focused on China's monetary policy operations during the study period (2002-2008), and the contemporaneous status quo of domestic agricultural development of which the comprehensive expatiation is mainly in term of two aspects cover output and price levels.Meanwhile,it introduces some realistic problems which the growth of agriculture faces with at present. Subsequently,the thesis figures that the industrial effects of China's monetary policy conduct an empirical analysis based on agriculture sample. The elaborate analysis leads up to one full-scale anatomy to such as indicators include money supply, the output and price level of agriculture and its sub-industries though establishing three VAR models.It observes the interrelation between monetary policy and the total agricultural output and the price level by short-term causality test and acquires the specific impact to the response of agriculture and its sub-industries output and price to monetary policy impulsion through Impulse Response Function.Based on the analysis of variance, to fully survey major components to movement against the different indicators; through the EGARCH model, to verify the asymmetric effects of monetary policy concentrate industrial effects in specific direction. By empirical research, the article figures that the agricultural industry effect ofthe monetary policy is not significant, while the asymmetric output effects of monetary policy does not exist but the price effects of monetary policy exists asymmetry. Finally,the ariticle mainly describes that the interpretation and comment to the above empirical analysis and summarize the relevant conclusions and put forward the related policy proposals and prospects aim at the final conclusions of the analysis,which include to consummate the country policy-related financial institutions;to relax restrictions properly to country financial market;to unlash the interest level of country financial market step by step and inaugurate the new financing field,to accelerate the industrial-operation to agriculture and the evolution of export-oriented agriculture,to improve the monetary transmission mechanism recently ulteriorly.