Taking Into Account Transmission Constraints In Large-scale Electric Power System Capacity Reliability Assessment Study

The power system must have some reserve capacity to meet unscheduled load requirement, in order to supply safe, stable and continuous power energy with load fluctuation and equipment fault. Power system reliability assessment is becoming a significant auxiliary tool in power system planning, design and operation, and can provide important information to ensure the safe, steady and economic running of power system.The traditional method of reserve capacity reliability assessment is usually long-term assessment. But it only can estimate whether reserve capacity is enough, because the running condition is uncertain and it doesn't consider transmission restriction. On building reserve capacity reliability assessment model, the paper takes into account generator and line restriction, and giving new probabilistic reliability indexes. The paper uses improved importance sampling and new convergent criterion to increase the speed of constringency. The program runs power flow calculation with BPA software. This paper assesses someday's reserve capacity in East China Power Grid. The result of assessment can do some help on the side of reserve capacity.