Markov-based Equivalent Of Substation Bus Reliability Analysis

With the development of our society, power system is becoming more and more large and complicated. At the same time, it is required that power reliability should be better. Thus, the evaluation and improvement of reliability of the power system is paid more attention to. Quantificational reliability evaluation of station and substation is needed in power system planning, safety operation and the selection of equipment type, Which also supplies scientific reference to improving availability of facilities, optimal repairing arrangement and improving the weakest part of the system and brings us safety and economical operation.This thesis introduces analytical method of reliability evaluation. First of all, it introduces the definition and the basic characters of Markov process, which is the mathematics foundation of the analytical method with Matrix of transition rates used to obtain probability correlating to system state time and stability probability. Secondly, with several examples, the conception and characters of state space and the method, existing problems and the corresponding solutions. Finally, the conception and characters of Frequency and Duration technique and its principle are explained.Simulation of switching action is required in the process of reliability evaluation. Three state Markov model has a simple form, is easy to understand and requires relatively less data. The model, however, can not successfully describe practical renovation actions and existing mutual dependencies. An extended model " generalized n+2 state system Markov model " is proposed based on three state Markov model and applied in the evaluation of particularity of substation system. Because of the particularity of the system, general approaches are...