The Large Mall Fire Evacuation Human Reliability

In recent years, Serious conflagration accidents involving significant loss of life often occur in large marketplaces in our country. Human error is a important reason that make occupant casualty in fire evacuation of large marketplaces. It is a important to study human reliability for decreasing occupant casualty in fire evacuation. This thesis introduction characteristic of human behavior and influencing factors of in large marketplaces. It is proved that human behavior is difficultly expressed with a mathematics model due to the complex influenced factors. So human behavior's key performance shaping factors are recognized by principal components analysis and factor analysis, achieve the result that human behavior related six basic factor.Secondly index system of assessing human behavior reliability in in large marketplaces fire is established by the principle of human behavior and factors that affected human behavior. Then method of quantifying index system was discussed and achieved it is reasonable to quantity by the set-valued statistics, because this method involve with the specialist experience and opinion, and is close to reality. Then the order preference by similarity to consistency of uncertainty Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) judgment matrix and set-valued statistics is selected as a method that treat with human behavior assessment index power value in building fire. So human behavior reliability model is established and whose calculation method is discussed, finally this method is tested by applying a example of a large marketplaces.