Research On Life Prediction Method Of Blast Furnace

Iron and steel industry is the pillar of our industry and plays an important role in the development of national economy. As the blast furnace is the core equipment of iron and steel enterprise, it relates to the enterprises normal production. The enterprises gradually pay attention to blast furnace life. Due to various reasons, there is a certain gap in terms of the long campaign life technology for blast furnace at home and abroad. Implementation of blast furnace life prediction has become a serious problem influencing corporate profits and the development of our country.Based on the analysis of blast furnace ironmaking process, this paper makes a deep research on prediction method of 3# blast furnace nature and economic life from the point of operation safety and economy. The specific work is as follows:Firstly,3# blast furnace nature life can be predicted. PCA-BP neural network prediction model is adopted to predict the slag skull thickness on copper stave. The prediction results not only lay the foundation for predicting lining thickness, but also can realize real-time monitoring of forming slag skull on different copper staves to prolong blast furnace nature life by adjusting operation system. By using the dimension reduction principle of PC A,14 variables influencing slag skull informing on copper staves are reduced to 5 combined variables. PCA-BP prediction model can simplify prediction model and improve prediction accuracy. Using the prediction results the lining thickness can be calculated according to the heat conduct theory of one-dimension flat heat conduction. Then the remaining life of blast furnace can be calculated based on the lining erosion average speed to get the blast furnace nature life which is the summation of remaining life and using life.Secondly, according to the life cycle cost theory,3# blast furnace economic life can be predicted. As the blast furnace maintaining cost is difficult to acquire, GM(1,1) prediction model is used to predict maintaining cost on the basis of reasonable cost breakdown. Considering the time value of capital, the method of minimum annual average cost is chosen to forecast the economic life which can be the any one year of a certain range. And the reference method is given when the enterprises need to change or update blast furnace.At last, because the blast furnace is determined by nature life and economic life, the calculating formula of blast furnace life is given based on the two kinds of prediction results. The two kinds of prediction method are applied in 3# blast furnace and the forecast results are analyzed. Finally, some measures and improvement suggestions are put forward to prolong blast furnace life.