Research On The Sensitive Index And Critical Value About Prediction Of Coal And Gas Outburst In Daning Coal

Coal and gas outburst is one of the great natural calamities during coal excavation and exploitation.Its imperilment is strong, restricting the excavation and exploitation rapidity and influencing the economy benefit greatly.As is known to us, coal and gas outburst is a kind of complicatedly dynamic phenomena under the synthetic influence of geo-stress ,gas pressure in coal seam and mechanical nature of coal seam structure.At present, coal and gas outburst is a cosmopolitan difficult problem.China is one of the nations that have grievous coal and gas outburst problems.In outburst coals, forecast about coal and outburst is the key technology,the forecast preciseness degree relates to the security of the coal.Moreover,the core content of forcast is the sensitivity of forcast index.For the confirmation of every index,this paper sets up the sensitivity function about forcast index and denotes the sensitivity of each index to researched coal quantificationally via combining fuzzy and statistics.On the base of this,this paper also elicits the confirmation method of sensitive index's critical value,making forcast index's"three ratio"as inspection standard.Using this maths model ,comput the sensitivity of each forcast in Daning coal.The practice prove that this conclusion is right and accord with the truth of this coal. Via the original datum from Zhong Macun coal validate the exactness of the maths model.At last,compare this conclusion with the conclusion that comes from established grey relational analysis model based on the same datum from Longshan coal.Two methods are consistent, consequently, validate the exactness of the maths model once again.