Hunan Population And Structure Prediction

Population is the most important problem that each country of the world, and is also a primary problem of social and economic development.China is the most populous developing countries in the world. There are a large of population, relative shortage of resources, weak capacity of the environment, which is basic national conditions at the present stage of China and this phenomenon will be not to changed and solved within a short time. That overall considered population problem is the major and urgent strategic task to achieve economic development, social progress, sustainable development.Huge population, rapid growth rate, population structure unreasonable are constraint to economic development in Hunan Province. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the population in Hunan of the next few years, which will help the government to make effective Macroeconomic policies.In this paper, the population and structure in Hunan is studied. First, we introduced the dynamic process of the population in Hunan. Secondly, we established the forecasting model of population by using GM(1,1) model,grey Verhulst model and dispersed grey model, respectively. Then, using Leslie model, population in Hunan Province,male and female population,population age structure,population aging demographic trends are forecasted under the impact of the population and total fertility rate of women of Hunan Province.Finally, considering the over analysis, given some reasonable proposals.