Nearly 40 Years The Probability Distribution Of Temperature And Precipitation And Interdecadal Differences

Based on the data of average temperature and precipitation of 129 stations of China from 1961 to 2000, this paper uses normal school and Γ distributing simulating probability distributing of average temperature and precipitation separately. For the year of 1976 is turn of inter-decadal variations of atmosphere circumfluence and climate change , we also analyze inter-decadal variations of probability distributing of average temperature and precipitation in 1961-1975 and 1976-2000 separately. The results are outlined as following:(1) The apex of distributing figure of average temperature of most of areas of China deflects left in every seasons, and gradient is steep, others is small. Unconformity areas to normal school is most in summer, especially on lower reaches of Yellow River and west of Yunnan. (2) From the period of time of 1961-1975 to 1976-2000, unconformity areas to normal school augment in summer, and the whole of southeast of China become unconformity areas to normal school in 1976-2000. Unconformity areas to normal school of south of China augment in winner, adverse to north of China. Autumn is adverse to winner. And phenomena of two apexes and multi-apexes become more in spring. (3) probability distributing of precipitation of rain day is obvious leaning distributing, using Γ distributing simulating it preferably. (4) Probability distributing of most precipitation of rain day in l-20days gained by using Γ distributing, Probability distributing assumes J in reverse. With adding days big value of Probability distributing deflect to bigger precipitation , and it becomes smoothness, difference between different interzone becomes small. Probability of most precipitation of rain day of ≥ 10mm,≥25mm,≥50mm on inshore areas is bigger than inland's, Probability of big rainstorm on Anhui province and Jiangxi province is most. (5) Γ distributing figure parameters of the unconditional precipitation and the precipitation given wet preceding day or dry preceding day for different stations is smaller than l,and their forms is same approximately. Form scale parameter we can see that probability of precipitation of rain day become bigger on the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River, and discrepancy between upriver and the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River also become bigger, the other areas change unapparent. Probability of most precipitation of rain day in 10(20) days which is more than 10mm on upriver of Changjiang River become smaller, adverse to probability of most precipitation of rain day in 10(20) days which is more than 25mm or 50mm. Probability of most precipitation of rain day in 10(20) days which is more than 10mm 25mm or 50mm on lower reaches of Changjiang River become bigger, section of ding-on transfer to lower reaches of Changjiang River, the other areas change unapparent.