The Prophecy And Analyse About Shen Yang Area's Highway-flow

Analysis on the development current and characteristic of the highway-flow is the basement of forecasting the flow of the highway, and also has very important meaning for establishing and optimizing the passenger highway's operation plan, for raising the quality and competition ability of the highway passengertransport, for marketing strategies of the highway transport. The paper aims to analyze and investigate the Shen Yang area's highway-flow which could know the basic trend of the highway-flow. And adopt some models to forecast the future highway-flow. Comparing the result and the true value could gain which model is the better for the highway-flow. And on that basement the paper bring forward some advice about forecast model of the highway-flow.Firstly the background of research is dissertated, then the characteristic and trend of the highway-flow is analyzed.Finally the impormant meaning of the selection and the main methods in the paper are puting forward. Secondly we introduce several prognosticate models and the advantages and the disadvantages of those models. Thirdly the nonparameter test (Friedman test) has used to test the increment of the highway-flow and result that the trend of the highway-flow. Then the auther use the ARMA model,GM (1,1) model,exponential smoothing method to forecast the ShenYang's highway-flow in 2008. Comparing the ture value and the forecast value to choose a better model for highway-flow. Last the author deduce the factors which would influence the accuracy of the highway-flow and give some advice to Highway-flow forecast model.