Empirical Studies Of Migration Of China's Rural Surplus Labors Works

The core of Issues of agriculture,farmer and rural area is the issue of farmers and the core of Issues of farmers is to increase income of farmers. Rural surplus labors work in non-agricultural industries is the important way to get salary income.To solve the problem of surplus rural labours mobility are both related to social development issues and issues related to economic development and the Issues of migration of rural surplus labours is highly concerned by our government .In reviewing the theoretical basis of domestic and foreign, this study analysis the characteristics of migration of rural surplus labours.From the hypothesis of maximization of family income and the actual situation in our country, this study build the Family Optimizing Model of labor migration theory.Considering the influence the change of policy and economic structure and after unit root test and cointegration test,the study build the variable parameter of the state space model to examine the Family Optimizing Model.The result of the empirical studies shows that,the expected income of rural households labours in Non-agricultural industries is flexibility to quantity of migration of rural surplus labours,the expected net cost of rural households tabor in Non-agricultural industries is inflexibility to quantity of migration of rural surplus labours and the elasticity of quantity of migration of rural surplus labours is changing by the implementation of the policy and the economic structure.Based on the research results of above,this paper explores the industrial strategy for the efficiency of resource allocation of rural surplus labours.The ideas of focusing on developing non-agricultural or agricultural are different in Lewis and Todaro model.The paper,selecting the three industrial added value growth rate and total wage income growth rate of rural population to as the four variable,establish VAR model, combined with the Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition method.Empirical results show that the growth of the tertiary industry has stably,formidable promoter action to the farmer wage income growth; the impacts of Primary Industry and Secondary Industry to the growth of farmer wages income have"dual characters". So, the key of transfer of agricultural surplus labor is adjusting of industrial structure,absorptive capability of Secondary industry to agricultural surplus labor is limited,the policies facing agriculture, rural areas and farmers is effective strategic decision in long run.