The Empirical Study Of Non-financial Information And Early Warning Of Listed Companies

As the economic relation of the world becomes closer, China's enterprises are facing increasingly tough competitive situation, the deep reform of the market economy system and the rapid development of the capital market in China has also brought more uncertainty, in such a context, the least bit of carelessness could leads to the financial distress. So it is so necessary that to set up a prediction model to forecast the future financial condition of corporations and prevent the financial crisis.The traditional financial analysis and financial prediction model is usually based on financial indicators. However the occurrence of Enron financial crisis demonstrates the traditional prediction model basing solely on the financial indicators has been difficult to deal with the complex and volatile economic environment. In view of this, this article attempts to introduce some non-financial information to the financial crisis forecast system. Drawing on the results of previous studies, this paper adopts the method of empirical to predict the financial condition of listed companies in China, hoping that it will provide some reference value for the follow-up study.This article selected 80 ST companies as a sample of financially distressed firms from 2007 to 2009, in accordance with the principle of same industry and similar size, this article selected 160 normal companies as paired samples. Then it selected 17 financial determinants,7 non-financial determinants to quantify the financial information and non-financial informantion. Then it used T-test and the correlation analysis to eliminate some variables and confirm the model variables. At last the paper adopted Fisher's and logistic regression analysis models, compare the accuracy of models before and after the introduction of non-financial information. Then the article inspect the contribution of the non-financial information for the financial crisis early warningThe results show that the contribution of financial information can not be ignored, however, the introduction of non-financial information can greatly improve the model's early warning capability, so the non-financial information also has a positive meaning to prevent financial crisis. It means that the introduction of non-financial information will improve the ability and efficiency of financial distress prediction.