| Bond is the basis of national credit,in accordance with the general principles of debt,to raise funds through the community formed by the relationship between credit and debt.Foreign Economic and Trade University,Dean of School of Finance Professor Wu Jun had said,"Bond market macro-economic conditions of great significance in economic variables.On the one hand,government bonds are the financial scope of the direction of treasury bonds and spending part of the Government's fiscal policy,which directly express the depth of government involvement in the national income distribution;the other hand,another part of the financial scope of government bonds,and financial markets,money market is closely related to."So,to say the financial and monetary bond with the dual attributes,fiscal policy and monetary policy as a bridge.On the national debt on the macroeconomic and microeconomic effects on economic growth and economic stability,the impact of divergent views on Chinese and foreign scholars.Finance at Renmin University of China School of Professor Wang Chuanlun that, "Bonds not only economical and wide-ranging implications for non-compliance, but also create a macro to run a certain role."In 1998,the economic crisis,China's central government resolute decision to adopt an active fiscal policy. As the economy gradually improved the form of an active fiscal policy has begun to gradually fade out and began to implement prudent fiscal policy.The face of the economic crisis broke out in 2008,many scholars began in 1998 have carried out comparative analysis of results showed that the 2008 economic crisis and the economic crisis in 1998 have a lot of similarities,but in 2008 the economic crisis seems to be more serious.According to China Daily news,"According to the U.S. Cable News Network reported that the Asian Development Bank released a report on the 2009 Asian economic assessment of the situation report showed that in 2009 the Asian region's economic growth rate will drop to 3.4% became in 1998 the lowest rate of growth after the economic crisis. "Debt policy as an important tool for regulation of the economy in 1998,has played an important role.Therefore,this article through the 1998-2007 economic effects of debt policy analysis,especially for domestic effective demand-pull effect analysis,made some recommendations and I hope the current economic crisis facing the make constructive comments.This article is from theory to practice,from practice,identify problems,issues and away from written form of a recommendation,the total is divided into four parts.The first part is written on the theory of treasury bonds in the West.In the Western economic circles,because Western countries also have local government debt,therefore,refers only to the central government debt bonds.This is the definition of the concept of Chinese government bonds is different,Chinese local governments are not allowed to. issue debt and,therefore,bonds are generally the same as government bonds.Western economics,the theory on the national debt is basically divided into three main areas-a useful theory of treasury bonds,treasury bonds neutral theory and the theory of detrimental.Debt to Western theory,this article is based on chronological excerpts of the more important theory of treasury bonds.China's bond market,shorter development time,so the theoretical development of the Chinese government bonds relatively short time,relatively shallow.Many Chinese scholars,the theoretical study on China's government bonds are based on theoretical models based on Western government bonds,combined with China's practice data analysis,and has not formed only for the bond model of China's special conditions.The second part is written,the status quo of China's treasury bonds.Since 1998,China's national debt scale linear upward trend,whether it is reasonable for the size of China's national debt to become a hot debate over the years many scholars.The size of a standard measure of debt there are many,this article separately from the rate of debt burden,dependence on government bonds,bond debt service rate,residents should take debt rate and bond rate of 5 standards,the deficit between 1998-2007,the size of China's treasury bonds;for different standards it will come to different conclusions.However,a comprehensive look at the size of China's national debt is indeed large,although there are some expansion space,but also should pay attention to the enormous national debt service due to debt pressures and financial risks and other related issues.In addition,since the establishment of China's bond market,shorter periods of time,bonds are not in-depth theory,used to measure the standard size of China's treasury bonds are selected from the internationally recognized standards,for the applicability of China's bond market is also a little study.The third part is some of this evidence is mainly divided into two major model.The first is the derivation of the multiplier bonds,as well as our national debt of the multiplier calculation;second is the application of IS-LM model analysis of China's treasury bonds pulling effect on demand analysis.With regard to government bond investment multiplier analysis,this paper mainly through four sectors of the economy and the Keynesian multiplier theory derived Treasury bond investment multiplier formula,through the 1998-2007 data,the linear regression to calculate the multiplier of China's treasury bond investment.Because this data is to select data from the decade of 1998-2007,which is different from other articles where the merits,this paper calculated the decade of China's treasury bond investment multiplier of 1.82.However,Chang-Jie Xia of China's 1998-2003 scholars calculated the average bond investment multiplier 2.08,Guoqing Wang scholars calculated bond investment multiplier 1998-2002 average of 1.62 g gate tower and Smith calculated the United States 1954-1963 year long-term government spending multiplier 1.84.This calculation does not take into account the national debt capital markets,investment multiplier,otherwise the multiplier will be smaller.This article also analyzes the actual data through the 1998-2007 bond investment stimulating effect on the economy,results show that the multiplier effect of China's treasury bonds should be less than the theoretically calculated values,mainly due to the extent that bonds are in place,investment in bonds, as well as statistical data on the direction of the errors,etc.,but our bond investment multiplier is decreasing,which is very conducive to investment-led economic growth after the debt trend.With regard to the role of China's national debt on the demand-pull analysis,this paper use of IS-LM model is generated on China's treasury bond investment crowding-out effect analysis showed that not only did not produce our bond investment crowding-out effect,but also to some extent had a squeeze effect.Government investment on private consumption and private investment generate crowding-out effect is often discussed in Western economics issue,but also many countries in the West recognized and proven.The effect of China's national debt has been produced by squeeze also been confirmed by many domestic scholars,practice has proven that China's treasury bond investment on private consumption and private investment has a strong leading role.This paper were also through our IS curve and the LM curve to describe China's distinctive characteristics of IS-LM model,in order to explain the effect of China's treasury bond investment squeezed into the cause.In addition,this article by 1998-2007,China's investment in fixed assets and changes have been the main composition analysis confirmed that our bond investment on the private economy has not produced crowding-out effect,and even create squeeze effect.The fourth part of the writing was on the 1998-2007 economic pull of China's treasury bond investment,particularly in stimulating domestic demand,a problem and my recommendations.This paper is mainly targeted at stimulating domestic demand,China's national debt on the existing problems,such as stimulating investment in China's national debt had no significant effect of household consumption.In addition,the scale of China's national debt to invest in government bonds,issuance costs,bond yields, bond investment risks,etc are all there are certain problems and areas for improvement.Treasury bonds in stimulating economic growth,adjust the economic structure and transformation of the mode of economic growth will play a big role.Therefore,the debt problems of our country,I think the national debt policy in the future,we should pay attention to maintaining the appropriate scale of treasury bonds to further adjust the direction of government bonds,as well as pay attention to and other related fiscal policy,monetary policy,combined in order to play a larger and more comprehensive role.Along with the emphasis on debt policy,practice effects on the bond investment is confirmed by government bonds in macro-control policy,the government has gradually become an important tool for debt related issues in the study of the theory has also become hot spots.China's market-oriented reform is unprecedented andtherefore,difficult to find the relevant economic theory as a guide. With the involvement of Western economic theory,in order to solve China's problems of economic theory provides a good tool and perspectives.In short,this article is to draw on Western economics in the relevant economic model,the actual analysis of our country,our national debt in the 1998-2007 decade,the economy,both positive and negative impact.This is significant not only because the combination of theory and practice,but also a more systematic drive demand for government bonds has conducted a comprehensive analysis,and on this based on the issues and related policy recommendations.Finally,because I have academic ability and writing time constraints,the text many scholars have different views and,although the starting point for research is different,I also pointed out that the differences in the text the reason why,but the inevitable research deep enough understanding of the result of incomplete,Hope you for scholars criticize the correction. |
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