An Empirical Analysis On Residential Mortgages Of Commercial Banks

With the real estate industry in China is identified as a new force for the growth of the national economy,and the housing consumption grows into a new consumption trend, residential mortgages thus get a good opportunity for development. In 1998, the year China decided to cease distribution of housing in kind, setting up a new housing allocation system that the housing supply is commercializatied,socialized and monetary.This is a further promote for the residents to purchase commercial housing through a personal housing mortgage loans. And with the reform and opening up the socio-economic changes in the environment and the general increase in the level of income of urban residents, as well as changes in consumer attitudes, coupled with the abolishment of welfare housing distribution in China and the introducion of a series of policies stimulating housing demand, the housing market has shown a kind of prosperity. At the same time, the amount of individual mortgage home loans has also been increased dramatically, and it becomes an important component in the business of commercial banks, and it also has contributed to the development of national economic.With the personal housing mortgage loans become an important part in the business of commercial banks, and the amount of this business increased rapidly, correspondingly the potential risks of commercial banks is also growing.Therefore,it is necessary ot measure the risk and it is also necessary for commerical banks to take measures to prevent risks.After comparing a variety of Measurement Models for credit risk, this article selects a model suitable for China's commercial banks, the model named Credit Risk+.Then making empirical analysis for the personal housing mortgage loans for a commercial bank,obtaining the default loss distribution of their personal housing mortgage loans. Through this results, we make a suggestion for the corresponding economic capital allocation, in order to take preparations for unexpected loss. At the same time, this artice will make advice for the risk control of personal housing mortgage loan business for China's commercial banks,and will provide some ideas for promoting the personal housing mortgage loan business to develop healthily and improving the benefit of China's commercial banks.