The Impact That The Financial Crsis Make To The Chinese Logistics Industry And Strategic Analysis

September 14, 2008 to 22, just a few days, forced sale of Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy filing, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group, the Federal Reserve's approval of the transition from investment banks to traditional bank holding company , plus a few months ago by JP Morgan Chase acquisition of Bear Stearns, once high-flying Wall Street suffered heavy losses. The United States and Europe have been affected many financial institutions have closed down, the direct result of the Western States banks to tighten credit. In the credit crunch, the parties predicted that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates to stimulate the market through the further flow of funds, while the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in turn lead to further weakening of U.S. dollar, the RMB revaluation pressure continues to increase, more hot money into China will be .The previous year, caused by the credit crisis, the financial turmoil eventually caused the global financial crisis and is to infiltrate the real economy, it may lead to global economic crisis. The global financial crisis on the development trend of China has just had a great impact on the logistics industry, including the current financial crisis because of the global economic recession which led to the logistics industry, and from the negative impact of the financial crisis causes to conclude that our the logistics industry should avoid similar problems in the future development of the logistics industry has sounded the alarm. In this study, ZA structural change model and GARCH model for the establishment of a model prediction. Study shares of listed companies for the mainland logistics original price. The study ran from January 1,2000 to November 11,2009. Studies look at the logistics stocks were among the stocks on the mainland before the crisis, the financial crisis, and the whole period studied. To see whether the effects exist, and the existing size.The empirical results show that this research through the Zivot and Andrews structural change test and single-variable GARCH model for the establishment of a financial crisis, the impact on the mainland logistics industry forecast. The results showed that U.S. stocks on the mainland logistics company, the impact of stock exist, thus reflecting the financial crisis, the impact of logistics industry in mainland China.