Financial Warning Research Of Chinese Manufacturing Listed Companies Based On The Dynamic Perspective

As the saying goes:Preparedness ensures success, unpreparedness spells failure. External financial environment must be monitored and warned, the internal control system also need to be monitored and warned. Manufacturing has become a pillar industry of China's national economy and the dominant sector in China's economic growth in economic restructuring after nearly three decades of rapid development. However, the financial crisis continue to show in the rapid development of listed companies.It is intensified that the manufacturing sector become a listed company "ST" section or even forced to withdraw from the market situation due to financial crisis.This paper researches manufacturing companies, reviewes the theory of financial warning mechanism, summarize the reasons for financial crises, and analysis the basic process of the financial crisis early warning mechanism. This paper described the dynamic perspective of enterprise financial crisis on the basis of the relevant theoretical research methods introduced in this paper, selected model sample and the prediction sample according to certain standards,and choose the indices to build a model.when we choose the variable indices,we choose the ST sample indices in the first three years of data. This paper determined independent variables of a dynamic early warning models based on equal to the mean test, correlation test and the test distribution. Finally, this paper deteimined three early-warning model on the warning time in three different stages which pass the significance test and goodness of fit test, this paper tested the construction of the three a prediction model based on the modeling sample and prediction samples, which made a better prediction.Finally, this paper evaluated the dynamic perspective of early warning models, pointed out the advantages and shortcomings, while making advices to managers in the financial early warning...