| In recent years, with the rapid growth of China's total foreign trade volume, China overtook Japan as the world's third largest trading nation in 2005, only to the United States, Germany. On the one hand, China's trade surplus increased year by year, our country not only suffered increasing trade frictions in various types, but RMB exchange rate issue has become the main objective that western countries pressure and accuse China; On the other hand, huge trade surpluses do not mean that China has become from the "a big trading country " into "a strong trading nation". In fact,the pattern of China's trade growth is inefficient,trade structure is low-level,exports with low technological content are lack of international competitiveness, which is disproportionate to our largest trading status. Economic globalization has brought fierce competition to promote country to constantly adjust and optimize industrial structure, relying on technological progress to enhance its overall national strength. The development of high-tech industry is becoming a new economic growth point. New technology products trade will become the mainstream of international trade. Since implementation of the "invigorating trade though science and technology" strategy in 1999, the Chinese high-tech products trade have become the engine of rapid growth in foreign trade and an important way to adjust the industrial structure and upgrade trade structure. Since reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism in the July 2005, the RMB exchange rate has continued appreciation. Whether the exchange rate, as an important economic lever adjusting the trade balance of a country, has inherence relations with high-tech products trade, how adjustment of exchange rate to high-tech products takes effect, what is the main influential factor in developing of high-tech products trade, are mainly discussed and studied in this thesis.On the basis of study on research results from home and abroad, the thesis uses more sophisticated and rigorous elasticity theory in system of the relationship between exchange rate and trade, and overcomes some drawbacks in the former researches. Based the monthly data as the observation of objects since the new exchange rate system in July 2005, and RMB real effective exchange rate index that reflects the products competitiveness in international trade, the thesis builds up the econometrics model to integrate qualitative and quantitative analysis method. Because monthly data of individual variables have been collected difficultly, construction of this model has been simplified, which inevitably affects the accuracy of empirical results. However we can not deny the general conclusions because of data-processing defect. This thesis follows the "Literature Review—Theoretical framework—Empirical analysis—Conclusions proposed", the strict framework of modern economic analysis. Therefore,the research framework is as follows:First of all, it explains our situation and characteristics of high-tech products, changing situation of the RMB exchange rate and behind reasons,to offer background of empirical research;Secondly, using elastic theory, the exchange rate incomplete pass-through theory, time lag effect theory as the theoretical basis for empirical study,it tests the applicability of the theory in the field of high-tech products trade based on the empirical result;Thirdly, it constructs an econometric model and takes regression analysis, with the following conclusions: As the exchange rate incomplete pass-through and other factors, there was no necessary connection between Marshall-Lerner condition and high-tech products trade balance. China's high-tech products trade flow was not sensitive to changes of RMB exchange rate, and it exists the time lag effect. Finally, based on the empirical results, with the current RMB exchange rate and China's high-tech industries development and its trade, this thesis puts forward policy recommendations respectively, from the angle of trade promotion, exchange rate adjustment, industrial development. |
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