The Evaluation Of Financial Safety Degree On Chinese Manufacturing Listed Companies

Economic globalization as well as the emergence and rapid development of financial derivatives,which makes new types of financial risks continue to be "derivatives" out, have been threatening the enterprise financial safety.The global financial crisis has exacerbated the threat.So it has a important practical significance to establish an effective enterprise financial safety degree evaluation system for early detection of financial hidden danger.On the basis of predecessors'research achievements and according to the related theories about financial safety degree evaluation this dissertation chooses 78 listed manufacturing companies implemented special treatment for the first time and 78 normal listed manufacturing companies during the period from 2006 to 2009 as paird samples,selectes 5 cash flow indexes reflecting enterprise financial safety degree through variable cluster stepwise regression as well as correlation analysis methods,establishs Logistic Regression evaluation models and has an empirical test,has the the evaluation of financial safty degree for the sample companies eventually.The conclusion of this dissertation are as follows:First, it is found that cash flow indexes characterize to enterprise financial safty condition well. This dissertation selects the indicators of return on asset and cash flow,net cash on sales to net sales,cash and cash equivalents to current assets,appropriate ratio of investment and cash dividend payout ratio which characterize to enterprise financial safty condition. These indicators has significant explanatory capability for financial security companies and the financial crisis companies.Second, this dissertation has establish enterprise financial safety evaluation models.These models have good evaluation results of the sample companies in the year and in two year before special treatment,the accuracy rate of evaluation is close to 90% and 80%.The more close the time approach,the more precise the evaluation will be.Third, the results show that there were already signs of problems to the financial safty condition of the financial crisis companies for years before special treatment.Through the the evaluation of financial safty degree for the sample companies this dissertation finds that there are two situations of the financial crisis companies for four years before special treatment.One is that the financial condition of the financial crisis companies was in risks continuously for four years before special treatment,the other is that the financial condition of the financial crisis companies evolve from safey to distress or four years before special treatment..Through the the evaluation of financial safty degree we can detect the financial hidden danger faced by enterprises as early as possible,so as to take corresponding measures to avoid risks.