Research On Economic Evaluation Of The Tertiary Oil Recovery Project In Daqing Oilfield

Daqing oilfield is the biggest oilfield in our country. In the 1990s, the main reservoir gradually began to enter high watery extraction stage, and the tertiary oil recovery experiment carried out. The technology is popular. With or without comparison method is mainly used in economic evaluation of it, and combination of discounted cash flow method and uncertainty analysis, which included break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis. It plays a positive role in promoting economic evaluation of tertiary oil recover project, but it still need to research scientific method applied to evaluate from the output effect and economic effect, and provides the scientific decision-making for large-scale implementation.This article researches economic evaluation on the basis of advanced economic evaluation methods and investigation. The paper improves and constructs indices system, and analyzes the characteristics and the limitations of traditional methods which used in economic evaluation, and puts forward the economic evaluation model by advanced methods, and it will be divide in multi-block investment opportunities decision-making stage and multi-plan optimization decision-making stage. In the fist stage, total value is calculated by the method of discounted cash flow and real option method, and Black-Scholes pricing model is used to determine real option value, and BP neural network is used to determine the main factors - the volatility of oil market price that affects real option value, thus investment opportunity is selected from multiple blocks. In next stage, the paper calculates economic evaluation indices and their weights are adjusted by information entropy, and plan is selected based on the grey situation decision-making model, furthermore, takes break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis for the chosen plan. The paper empirical researches on a tertiary oil recovery project in Daqing oilfield on the basis of economic evaluation model, which has certain practical value, can achieve the objective and reasonable evaluation, and the application effect is consistent with the objective reality.