The Research Of Fluencing Factor In China's Stock Market

This article is based on the Behavioral Finance theory, and is a research analysis the factors which affects our country's stock market from the investor psychology's aspect. In the Behavioral Finance theory, the Expected utility maximization theory, the Effective market hypothesis theory and the Rational person theory are all inconsistent with the facts. The investor as an individual and the investment institution whose main is a group which is composed of individual, will not only experience a table work process like analyzing data, but also experience a psychological activity process which is penetrating the throughout investment process before carrying on the investment decision, and this psychological activity process will influence to the investment decision to some extent, and then this influence will displayed in the stock market's price tag along with the investment behavior is executed.In this article the quantification factors which represent the investor psychology are the weather conditions. For example, the hot weather will make one restless and easily to impulse; Otherwise the cool weather will let the person's mentality be clear and calm down; The wet weather will let the human be agitated; and the bright weather will even cause the human to feel the life happier……Obviously, the weather's qualities could influence person's psychological condition to a great extent.The relationship between the weather and the stock is produced through the following transmission mechanism:Weather—Investor mood—Investment decision—Stock returns ratio. For instant, the fine weather has had a positive influence to investor's mood, subsequently causes he to have a better expected to the stock, and then he will have more willing to carry on the investment, so the stock's returns ratio will increase because of the more investment. In the previous research many scholars did, this transmission mechanism already have been confirmed very good, namely the fine weather—a high returns ratio, the bad weather—low even a negative returns ratio. This article is while carries on the confirmation to the former research through other one more effective method, emphasis on the relationship research between the weather and the investment decision making, that is the relational research between weather and the exchange volume fluctuation and exchange amount fluctuation. So, in this research the transmission mechanism of influence factor to be restricted only in:the weather condition—investor mood—investment decision, it can observe its influence extent more obvious, this is also one of this article's innovation points. Moreover this article will also use the 5 minutes and a half hour data to do the research in the relations between the weather and the transaction behavior, hope can find out in which time period during one day the weather has the influence to Stock market.This article has had a certain extent research through three aspect's empirical studies in the relationship between our country's Stock market and the weather conditions, discovered that the weather and the returns ratio have the very remarkable relation, the conclusion of fine weather-high return is tenable. On the other hand the relationship between weather and transaction behavior'is more obvious, especially the influence from the cloud cover and the rainfall amount to the exchange volume fluctuation and the exchange amount fluctuation is much remarkable. Although after carrying on the dividing time interval research, we discovered that in 2004—2008 year the weather's influence to the stock market had be weaken to some extent, but there are always some weather factor have more or less influence to the exchange behavior in some time interval in the daily transaction process.