Research Of Financial Risk Early-warning Base On Early-warning-chain And MKV Sampling And The Application Of CHAID Decision Tree

This paper focused on financial risk early-warning for listed company. Base on 14042 annual reports from 1998 to 2008 of main board share A market manufacturing listed company, this paper firstly carried out a comprehensive statistical analysis of the financial risk and discussed the principal representation of it, and found that net profits and PNE are the key indicators of measuring financial risk. Designeing financial-performance-chart to show the changes in the financial situation for listed companies over years intuitively. Creating early-warning-chain which base on ST system of China to display the upstream and downstream relationship amoug every financial period and the changes of risk, and then analyzed every links of the early-warning-chain. In the sampling section, this paper developed a new methor MKV and collected 393 risk samples accompany with 393 normal ones from annual reports from 1998 to 2008 of 722 listed companys, which taked greate advantage of the information of risk samples. U test and Factor analysis are applied for the purpose of building an appropriate index system for early-warning. Then useing Logistic regression, Fisher discriminant analysis and CHAID decision tree to form the early-warning model respectively. The result showed that CHAID has good effects in average detection rate and average correct rate which both were 73.7%. Futherly, this paper developed 3 types of early-warning strategies which called single type, risk type and conservative type, greatly improving the detection rate and correct rate, and then used these strategies to make a forcast of the financial risk of listed companys in 2010.