Simulation And Prediction Research Of LUCC About Chongming Dongtan

Land cover is a direct reflection of natural conditions for earth surface and sub-surface, meanwhile the study of land use status also reflect the purpose, methods and intentions for natural properties of human use. Through land use/land cover studies, we can not only qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate human activities on the impact of global environmental change, but also assess ecological environment, simulate and predict land use change. Moreover, the research can provide the basis for sustainable development and utilization of resources and environment. The study area of Dongtan in Chongming Island is rich of land resources. However, with the rapid development of Shanghai's economy and the acceleration of urbanization, conflict between population and land resource has become increasingly prominent. They not only affected the ecological environment greatly, but also changed land use and land cover types significantly. Therefore, the research on land use/land cover change of Dongtan in Chongming Island has important theoretical and practical value.By using 2000,2003,2005 and 2008 four-year TM remote sensing images, and surveying data, this paper studied and analyzed the land use/land cover dynamic evolution and landscape pattern on the support of ArcGIS, ENVI, Erdas Imaging, Fragstats, Matlab and other softwares Combined with 3S technology and site survey, this paper has established a research method on land use/land cover evolution and indicators system, and then simulated and predicted the dynamic evolution of land use /land cover. These works aimed to further understand the discipline of land use and landscape pattern changes and explain the relationship between the urbanization and land use/land cover change. Moreover, it also provided some references to achieve the sustainable development for regional land.The main work and conclusions of this paper include:(1)Comprehensive study of land use change With ArcGIS 9.2, we stated the amount of land use and structure in different periods, and constructed Dongtan land-use transition matrix. Meanwhile, we analyzed spatial and temporal distribution of land use/land cover, and the variation was also calculated.(2) Study of land use pattern changes and vegetation coverageWith Fragstats, we calculated 5 typical landscape pattern indices in Dongtan of Chongming Island for 4 years.And we also analyzed landscape patterns of different periods in Dongtan. Meanwhile, the spectral information was extracted from original images to calculate the typical vegetation coverage in ENVI, and the land use changes of Dongtan from the pixel-level were analyzed.(3) Land use simulation and predictionWith BP neural network algorithm, we simulated 2008 land use conditions based on previous data of Dongtan on the basis of Matlab software. By comparing the real land use of 2008 in Dongtan to the simulated condition, we evaluated the accuracy of the simulation model.With the artificial neural network model, we predicted land use trends of Dongtan to achieve the purpose of this study.