The Empirical Study Of Financial Crisis Early-warning Of Agriculture Companies

China's securities market for more than a decade of development experience, as at the end of 2008, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have more than 1600 listed companies. However, the overall situation, China's listed companies can not be optimistic about the operating performance, since the ST system implemented in 1998, the annual number of ST tended to rise. So the existence of a listed company's operating results caused by the crisis and its potential market risk can not be ignored. Today, companies and exposure to the face of complex and changeable environment of uncertainty, the market-oriented, international, information technology has increased the rapid development of the environment variables, survival and development of enterprises facing uncertainty, risk constantly increasing, and the potential financial risks arising from the crisis and its lag is a reality, should not be ignored. The cash is a scarce resource, is the most active business assets of the part of the cycle of corporate assets and the end of the starting point for working capital, business activities throughout the entire process. In enterprise management process, from the cash input to the entire production process, as well as the realization of the sale until the cash recovery, in this series of links of the adequacy of cash and its effectiveness will ultimately affect the enterprise's survival, development and risk. Although the book profit and some big companies, closed down because of lack of cash; Some enterprises, although the annual loss, because there is sufficient cash flow and to maintain long-term survival, and finally seize the opportunity to grow and develop.This article related to the theory at home and abroad on research results, and further study of the financial crisis early warning and the relationship between cash flow. From the financial crisis and the cash flow to start the definition of the concept, in elucidating the relationship between the two, based on the enterprise focused on how to proceed with the operation of the monitoring of the financial crisis, how to control cash flow to meet cash flow adequacy and effectiveness and risk control and minimize the success of the cash flow to explore the establishment of enterprises based on the financial crisis early-warning method to overcome in order to accrual-based financial crisis of the drawbacks of early warning methods, because accrual-based solvency, earnings quality and financial flexibility, does not take the risk, time value, such as greater subjective limitations. Enterprise development in the growing maturity of the growing complexity of the structure of the large-scale enterprise management, and corporate cash flow as a result of the survival, development, and growth of closely related, so a growing concern of investors and the management of cash flow information. Practice proves that business-to-cash flow management and control has become a key financial management. In this paper, absorbing the basis of previous results, finishing the 43 types of agricultural listed companies related to indicators of cash flow as a basis for building a new early warning model. The establishment of an effective evaluation model of enterprise's financial crisis is conducive to the listed company's financial crisis in the diagnosis and prediction, and a timely manner to management, shareholders, creditors and other stakeholders to provide a warning message. From traditional financial early warning in the study of advanced methods and successful experience on the basis of cash flow from the perspective of this paper to explore the issue of corporate financial early warning, the establishment of corporate cash flow financial early warning system for the theory and practice to provide another line of thought and research method.