Analysis On China's Corn Supply And Demand Balance Based On The Background Of Biomass Energy

Corn is a major source of feed and industrial raw material, accounting for 31% of the total grain output in China. It is second only to rice, and plays an important role in China's agricultural production.In recent years energy diversification has become the exorable trend all over the world, with international oil prices continuing to rise, energy crisis escalating and environmental pollution getting worse. Biomass energy is highly valued and actively supported by many countries because of the advantages of environmental protection and renewability. The biomass energy in this thesis mainly refers to fuel ethanol which is closely associated with the grain market. Corn is a major raw material for producing fuel ethanol. With corn-based ethanol demand and production increasing rapidly, domestic and international scholars are concerned about grain safety. Therefore, the study is of great significance on the corn supply and demand balance under the new background.This study conducted comprehensive review of the trends in the historical changes in China's corn supply and demand, and analyzed the characteristics of corn supply and demand under the background of biomass energy. Based on the review and analysis above, this study forecast corn production and demand and measured the supply and demand balance, and researched into the feasibility of keeping the balance between supply and demand at certain time points in the corn market. Based on the forecast of supply and demand and partial equilibrium theory, this study set three different goals of fuel ethanol development in 2020, and focused on analyzing the possible changes of China's corn price and the structure of demand under those goals.The research in this thesis was carried out from the following aspects. First, comprehensively analyzing the trends of the historical changes in China's corn supply and demand. Second, summarizing the characteristics of domestic and international corn supply and demand under the background of biomass energy. Third, forecasting and analyzing the corn supply and demand from 2010 to 2020 by building a time series model. Fourth, researching into the feasibility of achieving the equilibrium of China's corn supply and demand in the short-term by domestic stocking and international trade. Fifth, building Engel function model of corn demand and solving the price elasticity of the feed demand, industrial demand and total demand. Sixth, setting three scenarios with different goals of fuel ethanol development, and analyzing the possible changes in the corn price, corn feed demand and industrial demand by applying the elastic theory in economics. Seventh, proposing the policy suggestions on how to keep China's corn supply and demand balance based on the fuel ethanol development goals.The following conclusions were drawn from the research in this thesis:(1) The result of predicting China's corn supply and demand trends under the current biomass energy policy with econometric models showed that the production-demand gap of China's corn would appear from 2017, that the gap was estimated to be 8.037 million tons in 2020, and that, however, self-sufficiency rate would still maintain a high level at 96%. (2) It is highly feasible that China's corn supply and demand balance would be achieved by making use of domestic stocking and international trade at certain time points in the corn market. (3) The results under different goals of fuel ethanol development showed that developing fuel ethanol would have a great impact on China's corn price and the structure of supply and demand balance. When the proportion of the corn demand for ethanol to corn production was up to 5%, corn price would increase by 8%, and the proportion of the feed demand and industrial demand to total corn demand would reduce to 60.9% and 24.5%. When the proportion of the corn demand for ethanol to corn production was up to 10%, corn price would increase by 22%, and the proportion of feed demand and industrial demand to total corn demand would reduce to 57.9% and 22.9%. When the proportion of corn demand for ethanol to corn production was up to 15%, corn price would increase by 35%, and the proportion of feed demand and industrial demand to total corn demand would reduce to 55.1% and 21.5%.Based on the analysis on different goals of fuel ethanol development, this study came up with the policy suggestions on how to keep the balance of corn supply and demand from the aspects of production and domestic demand.