Research On Economy Early-Warning Of China Building-Materials Industry

With the continuous deepening of reform and opening-up, China's building-materials industry has made great progress. At present, China has become the world's largest building materials producer and consumer, and the building-materials industry's pivotal role is increasingly evident in the national economy. However, the lack of scientific development plan and investment-led economic growth model, make the contradictions such as capacity irrational, backward production technology, homogenization of competition, become increasingly prominent, so it's an urgent demand for building-materials industry to carry out the restructuring and revitalization for the industrial safety.Besides, in the policy context of energy-saving emission reduction, developing low-carbon economy, building-materials industry, the typical high energy-consumption and high-pollution industry, is facing new challenges. Therefore, considering the industrial's safety and sustainable development, it's necessary to set up the economy early- warning system of building-materials industry.We can predict the future economic fluctuation trends with the early-warning system by supervising the index system to which relate the building-materials industry, to provide decision support for the relevant government departments, trade organizations and enterprises.This paper comprehensively using knowledge of Management, Industrial Economics and System Theory, probes into the economic early warning system by focus on construction of the system. The author systematically analyzes the indicator system construction, weight assignment, the index calculation and threshold determination. This paper uses one chapter to outline the building-materials industry, its sub-industries and related-industries, studies its economy status and problems during the development. This helps select early-warning sign index. Finally, this paper conducts an empirical study on China's cement industry as an example.This paper has first time proposed environmental protection and technological innovation early-warning sub-system, considering the current policy on energy-saving and emission-reduction, technological innovation, which is of more important and significance to the development of building-materials industry.In the empirical studies of cement sub-industry in China, the author set up the indicators system. Then depending on historical data, the author calculates the synthesized warning index which shows a colder condition of building-materials industry in China in 2009.