Study On Risk Measurement Of Advanced Manufacturing Technology Investment Project

With the development of Advanced Manufacturing Technology in the global Manufacturing Industry and its importance, the evaluation on AMT investment project becomes an important problem of the academia. As the complexity of AMT investment project, the risk increases day by day. In order to reduce risk, risk measurement is a significant link. This paper has done a deeply research on AMT investment project risk measurement, in order to establish risk evaluation index system and build risk measurement model.Firstly, this paper studies the related theories on AMT investment project evaluation method and risk management, based on which, we expound the definition of AMT and its type, analyze the characteristics of AMT investment project, point out the concept and feature of AMT investment project risk management, then explain the principle of VaR(Value-at-Risk) and compare its numerical methods.Secondly, this paper discerns risk factors of AMT investment project, deeply analyzes their origin and characteristics, and then builds risk factors construction model and economic evaluation risk hierarchy model, sorting them with AHP.Thirdly, this paper analyzes the correlation of every risk factor and builds a correlation coefficient chart of risk factors, which can improve Monte Carlo Stimulation. Then we build a VaR measurement model based on improved Monte Carlo Stimulation. Using it, we can measure the risk of AMT investment project, and realize to it measured in quantization.Finally, using the VaR measurement model got in this paper, we empirically study Lungu Limited Company in Hebei province. Through analyzing the risk factors of AMT investment projects, and risk quantization, the outcome indicates that the method is scientific and feasible.