A Research On Crop Insurance Premium Rate Pating Method And Its Affects On Policy

In recent years,Policy-oriented crop insurance has got more and more attentions by Chinese government and the academic society in China.Academic studies on crop insurance were done more deeply,and the pilot projects of crop insurance have been done in almost every provinces of China.However,setting the premium rate of crop insurance,which is an important point in crop insurance,was not got enough attentions in China till now.The average of detrended yield of producton history are used commonly as premium rate in china.And crop yield is often assumed fitting the normal distribution in yield distribution simulation.But these will lead to great errors in premium rate,which had been proved by the studies and experiences in developed counties.Based on this,in order to show the error of premium rate setting will be made by using unfit or'wrong'yield distribution model,and trying to figure out a way to select the right yield distribution model,this paper select Normal distribution,Gamma distribution and Weibull distribution as the fitted distribution model to simulate the crop yield.we make the conclusions in the end tha:1.the accurate of premium rate setting depends on the reasonable and'right'choice of crop yield distributions,and selected distribution model must fit the actual yield distdbution.2.Useing the average of detrended crop yield of producton history as the premium rate of crop insurance often overestimates the premium rate of low-risk crop,and underestimate the premium rate of high-risk crop.Under the support of statistical software:MATLAB7.0,STATA10.0and EVIEWS6.0,this paper makes use of the knowledge of economics,agricultural economics,statistics and econometrics.