Change Of China's Citrus Production Cost And Its Influence On Export

China is one of the original countries of citrus and it's also the largest grower and the second largest producer in the world. Citrus is one of the fruit that have the widest planting areas and the most critical economic status in China. Citrus production has attained 19.62 million tons in 2007, which accounts for about 17% of the world total citrus production. But China is not a big exporter of fresh citrus, about 90% of China's fresh citrus products is sold in domestic market, so there is great export potential for China's fresh citrus. Expanding international market and enlarging fresh citrus export have practical significance to solve the problem concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers.Competitiveness of citrus in international market depends on its quality and selling price. On the one hand, efforts to improve citrus quality will reflect in the level of citrus production cost and its structure. On the other hand, the main composition subject of citrus selling price is the production cost. The higher the production cost is, the higher the selling price is. Since production cost of citrus has great influence on its export, we should academically discuss following questions: With the rapid rising of cost on agricultural means of production and labor, how has the structure of citrus production cost changed? What are the differences of citrus production cost in different regions? How great is the influence of citrus production cost on its export? The author studies the above questions in detail.According to logical order, this study is divided into six chapters, each of which is consisted of certain contents and conclusions.Chapterâ… raises questions. The relevant researches at home and abroad are reviewed so as to determine the content, the method and the technical route in this research and point out the possible innovation and shortcoming.Chapterâ…¡defines the conception of citrus production cost and its composition, and the computing method of China's citrus production cost is introduced on the base of the previous work. It analyzes the change of production cost per unit area and the change of structure as well as the law and reasons of the change of the production cost. Research shows that the level of China's citrus production cost per unit area is increasing. In addition, the material and service cost and the labor cost are the most important integrant parts of citrus production cost, and direct cost is the most important part of material and service cost.Chapterâ…¢chooses Hubei, Hunan in central China and Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangzhou in eastern China as samples, and uses glm process to do variance decomposition on disequilibrium data of production cost of the provinces. Then, it designs decomposed model of cost difference on the basis of panel data to confirm the main factors that resulting in different production cost in different regions. It also analyzes the main reason resulting in different production cost in the main citrus production provinces in the Center and East of China. Research shows that different regions have different important factors that affect production cost. Elastic coefficients of parts of the same factors got from the estimation of the two regions' models present different sizes and different signs. China's citrus production are in small scale, labor cost and fertilizer input play an important role in production cost of both the two regions.Chapterâ…£analyzes production cost per unit production by using descriptive statistics and further uses unit root test and ARIMA model to analyze the stationarity and trend of the series of citrus production cost. It uses wavelet decomposition and multi-scale analysis to study volatile characteristic of citrus export price serial, and compares the two serials' spectrum characteristic. Research shows that though there are some differences in the amplitude of the two series' spectrum diagram, the spectrum characteristics of them are similar. Both of them have an abnormal volatile point and volatile range is stable except the abnormal point. In addition, volatility of export price is more severe than that of production cost.Chapterâ…¤establishes ECM based on ARMAX to calculate the influence of citrus production cost on its export price and proposes modeling idea of multi-resolution VAR by combining multi-scale analysis and VAR model, then uses multi-resolution impulse response and multi-resolution variance decomposition to analyze the shock of citrus production cost on its export price. Research shows that influence of production cost on export price is significant, so we can decrease our citrus export price through decreasing its production cost. There is co-integration relationship between citrus production cost and its export price, so we can adjust citrus export price to avoid fierce volatile by controlling factors affecting citrus production cost.Chapterâ…¥proposes suggestions to decrease production cost and improve citrus export from the perspective of marketing philosophy, marketing strategy, technology research and its transformation, mechanical work, input structure, government support, management, export channels and discusses next work we need to do.The possible innovative points of the research embody in the following three aspects.First, seeing from the aspect of research on citrus production cost, previous researches just list citrus production cost of China and foreign countries in tables and compare them in a direct way, there are few references to study the profound reason and the law of the change of citrus production cost. The paper uses glm process to analyze the difference of China's citrus production cost in different regions and establishes decomposed model of cost difference on the basis of panel data to analyze the main reason that resulting in different production cost in different regions.Second, seeing from the influence of production cost on export, there are many theories about production cost and trade that can trace back to Adam Smith's theory of absolute cost, but all of them are groping for feasibility of trade from the perspective of production cost. The paper establishes ECM based on ARMAX to quantify the influence of citrus production cost on its export price.Third, from the perspective of research method, traditional VAR modeling theory has the defect that it can not effectively utilize the multiple time scale information contained in the inner of variables. In order to discuss multi-scale behavior among economic variables and capture variables' information in different time scale, multi-resolution VAR model, as know as MVAR has been introduced and combined with wavelet analysis and theory of VAR modeling to overcome the defect of traditional model and can capture the relationship between variables in different time scale in detail.