| With turmoil development in the financial insurance market, and it is an important issue how to maintain the stability of the insurance operation. In particular, the rapid growth in China's insurance industry in recent years, we should be soberly aware that China's insurance industry is also facing more risks than before. In order to correctly understand the insurance companies operating risk and its profitability, the balance should be analyzed in detail, and the liabilities of insurance companies have a lot of uncertainty, they need to carry out an actuarial assessment. In our country the actuarial study is backward, especially for non-life insurance actuarial study, with the result that property insurance companies have a great deal of flexibility in product pricing and assessment of the reserve. Resulting in insurance companies have to face more serious price competition, the original rate sheet is not useful; there were not rules for the assessment of the reserve for a long time, until the end of 2004 the actuarial method was used for non-life insurance business for assessment of the reserve. Loss reserve is the major insurance liability, it is of great significance to assess the reserve to the insurance companies on the sound operation. Due to the majority of non-life insurance business is a period of one year, the assessment methods of the premium reserve is sample, such as 1 / 24 and 1 / 365, and other laws; there are lots of uncertainties in the assessment of claims reserves, the paper analyzes claims reserve by using the methods in the"non-life insurance business reserve management (Tentative)"(hereinafter referred to as"pilot scheme") to a company's actual insurance claims data. In order to the authenticity enterprise property insurance and employers liability insurance are quoted for four consecutive years of compensation data for analysis, in which employer's liability insurance 1801 data, enterprise property insurance 1657 data. The reported claims reserve and IBNR reserve are respectively analyzed.Before assessing the claims reserve, the actual compensation data flow had been analyzed, I found the registration data is irregular, but lately the situation became better. According to the actual data analysis, I found that the employer liability insurance did not show the imaginary tail characteristics, the number of claims occurred evenly in each month of the year, the amount of compensation had the trend to increase . Assessment loss of enterprise property insurance can not be optimistic, the occurrence of claims have seasonal fluctuations. The rules and regulations have a greater impact on the employer liability insurance business, such as in 2003 the insurance company carried out the accident insurance business, in 2004 the implementation of the"industrial injury insurance regulations", and so on. Property insurance companies underwrite the main responsibility for natural disasters and accidents, the natural climatic factors have the influence on the occurrence of claims, the selected area usually have flood in the summer.During the process to assess the reported claims reserve, the two kinds of insurance had been analyzed by the case-by-case method and the average method. The large claims occurred in particular years, according to its causes the cases were coped with. After assessment the two methods, we found the average had the bigger result of estimation. Before insurance companies have not paid much attention to assess losses, from the statistical data show that the reliability of the data is lower, in order to enhance the accuracy of the work, insurance companies need to further improve the work of the claims. The choice of per compensation in the average method, the statistical methods has been used, and the future changes should be predicted, so in some way it is a subjective choice. To a certain extent, it is difficult to compare the merits and demerits of the two methods, if the conditions permit, case-by-case method and the average method should be used jointly, although there are differences in the results, the results of the assessment can be compared with.The total claim reserve should be first assessed, and then subtracting the reported reserve is to seek IBNR reserve. In the assessment process chain ladder method and average claim method are used, In the chain ladder method two development periods were used the one-year and six months and found that one-year progress in the relatively stable factor, the results of the final assessment is less than the results of semi-annual assessment. Claims can be settled in three years, in order to facilitate the analysis the development period selected the semi-annual. According to the estimation of the development factors table, we found the two factors have emerged the volatility in the first half of 2005 and the first half of 2007, the 6-12 factor is greater than 2, that means that the most claims can be settled within a year. The choice of development factor refers to the mean and the change in the future. Because of the seasonal fluctuations of property insurance claim occurrence, the use of traditional methods of assessment may be not reasonable, but the seasonal proportion method of the time-series theory can be a very good solution to this problem, it is a simple and practical method particularly suited to the data estimated. Finally, each of the reported claims reserve is estimated that there are two results. The total compensation reserve estimated that have three results. As the claims reserves and reported reserves have several different results, IBNR reserve estimate range can be obtained. We can see that IBNR reserve of the new"pilot scheme"is far greater than"financial management of insurance companies", the profit of insurance companies will be impacted.Finally, after a comprehensive analysis of claim reserve evaluation process, we found a number of problems, and gave some proposals on how to improve data quality and accuracy of estimated loss. The implementation of"pilot scheme"had higher requirements for the internal management of insurance companies, companies need to further improve the quality of the data. In addition to the development and changes of the provisions of the insurance contract had been analyzed, for the insurance contract has a direct impact on the timeliness of payments and the accuracy of claims reserves, such as occurrence policy transfers to claims-made policy, the IBNR reserve can not be assessed; No-fault plan proposed, to a certain extent of the damage can be dealt with directly by the insurance companies, claims procession can be speeded up. In the end, the property insurance claim reserve evaluation methods and the prospect of its development are summarized. |
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