The Construction Of The Early-Warning Indicators Of Regional Financial Risk And Empirical Analysis

With financial innovation and the acceleration the financial globalization process, financial risks are also increasingly highlighted. If the financial risks that can not be timely and effectively prevented and resolved, it can threat national and regional economic and financial security, even lead to severe financial crisis and Cause significant damage to the social economic development.In April 2007, the financial crisis triggered by the U.S. sub-prime crisis , is Still affecting the global economy.Above all, How to effectively guard against and defuse financial risks and build up the early-warning indicators of financial risk, is of great practical significance to maintain financial stability and sustainable of socio-economic development in China.Using current overseas and domestic researches on early-warning indicators of financial risk, the paper builds up the early-warning indicators of regional financial risk which are scientific and complete in some degree, and makes an empirical analysis on Jiangsu province.The paper consists of six sections. Chapter1 is about the introduction. In the part, the paper illustrates th background and significance of this reseach, reseach methord and content frame, and gives an overview of overseas and domestic literature on early-warning indicators of financial risk.Chapter 2 analyzes the theoretical foundation of the regional financial risk, introduces the characteristic of regional financial risk,manifestations and factors that may be intensified.The chapter 3 builds up the early-warning indicators of financial risk.The indicators include four first-level indicators and twenty-nine third indicators.The chapter 4 includes three steps which are the division of the basic states of financial risk, the detemination of the critical points and the weight of each indicator.Chapter 5 makes an empirical analysis on Jiangsu province.The paper colleects relevant macroscopic economic and financial data of Jiangsu province from 2003 to 2007, and makes Comprehensive Evaluation for Jiangsu risk condition, and get the empirical analysis conclusion.Chapter 6 gives the conclusion of the paper, summarizes the deficiencies in the research and points out the direction of improving.