Stock Price Analysis

The objective of stock price analysis is to deepen the investors' understanding of the stock market, thus to make the judgment of the market condition, which is in accordance with the market trend. Through effective stock investment analysis, the value and growth of listed companies and enterprises are evaluated to reduce the investors' investment risks. It is of active significance to both the harmony between family and society and the healthy development of capital market. This paper takes stable investment benefits as objective, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange A share as research object and discusses various factors, including macro-economic factor, industrial regional environmental factor, enterprise development factor and market technology analysis factor, which influence the stock fluctuation, through discursion of various analyzing methods of stock investment. Based on this, a set of quantifiable investment judgment indexes is summarized to form the index analyzing tool, including five systems, i.e. long swings judgment index, hot board judgment index, basic analysis judgment index, technical analysis judgment index and main structure supporting degree judgment index. Afterwards, stepwise regression method is adopted to further construct the stock selection model based on integrated indexes and factors. The principle is to construct the stock pool first based on the recent strong stocks of favorite fundamental indexes. When the market condition starts up, the integrated index stock selection model is concluded after the stepwise regression of factors, which influence the stock price operation, and the increase of stock during recent market fluctuation. Through statistic test, the interpreting ability of independent variables towards induced variables is relatively good in stock selection model. Making sure the importance of capital management and manipulation rules, a set of trade rules is discussed: at the very day when main stock index sends the signal of startup, buy the individual stocks, the calculated integrated indexes of which stand at the top, in the stock selection model at the closing price. Taking the time when individual stocks or the closing price of main stock index drops down to 16-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence price as selling signal, through the empirical analysis of the trade rules, the systemic risk is evaded during the bearish market from July to November 2008 and the benefits exceed the Shanghai Stock Exchange index, which is of certain reference significance for investors.