The Empirical Study For The Impact Of Chinese Logistics On The Economic Growth

Logistics industry is the result of constant deepening of economic globalization and social labor division. Having experienced two industrialized revolutions and under the circumstances of limited production and manufacturing technology, the economic development will have to look for new point of economic increase in the field of circulation, thus the development of logistic industry becomes the inevitable choice.Logistics industry has become an important part of national economy and an important service mode in the process of industrialization, it has gained more and more attention by the governments and the researchers as well. The impact of logistics on the economy has become one of the most important research topics in the field of logistics management. After reading the related literatures, we made the research of the impact of logistics on the economic growth on the following two aspects: firstly, it is based on the national time series, and secondly, we use panel data to analyze area differences.This paper uses labor-division theory to analyze the evolution of Chinese logistics, and the result of labor-division and specialization is the enhancement of efficiency, which can realize the economic growth and development. This paper develops a Cobb-Douglas economic growth model with logistics as a new variable which is from three aspects and on the base of eight sub-indexes and constructed by applying factor analysis. Then, we use national time series to do empirical research by adopting cointegration method and constructing a state space model. Finally, in order to prove whether the impact of logistics on the economic growth is stronger in the more developed areas than others, we construct a Panel Data model.The conclusion of this study: (1) Empirical results prove that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among logistics, physical capital, human capital and economic growth, although logistics promotes economic growth significantly, function mechanism certainly is not very strong. (2) This paper which constructs a state space model using data from 1999 to 2006 indicates that there is fluctuation of the impact of logistics on the economic growth, however, the impact is stable from 1999 to 2006. (3) The influence of logistics, physical capital and human capital towards economic growth among regions are asymmetric,and the production elasticity of eastern region is higher than central and western areas.