| After 20 years of development, the logistics industry in the national economy is becoming more and more important. However, problems followed the process of the logistics market rapidly development. Through the development of China's logistics market analysis, many problems exist: economy existed cycle volatility in the inherent, the field of logistics existed contradiction between "popularity" and "unpopularity", Structural imbalance between the supply of logistics market. For the purpose of solving the problems above, this paper established early-warning systems for the logistics market. The systems reflected changes in the development of the logistics market trend and monitored, evaluated, early-warned.The purpose of the system was to enable departments and businesses to take control measures and business strategy as much as possible in advance, avoid adverse events or situation, promote logistics market continued good operation and business activities carried out smoothly.In this paper, the early-warning systems of logistics market included three parts: early warning indicator system, data processing systems, early-warning signal system.1. The design of early warning indicators system included: a breakdown of China's logistics market, the principle of screening early warning indicators for screening, as well as the composition of early-warning indicators.2. The design of data processing systems included: using principal component analysis and analytic hierarchy process method of combining calculate weights of early warning indicators, the ultimate synthesis of composite indicators, using gray prediction method and regression method of combining the establishment of the logistics market of combination forecasting model to predict single indicators and composite indicators of logistics market.3. The design of early-warning signal system included: use systematic method to identify early warning threshold, elaborated the principle of setting early warning signal system, divided the development state interval of early warning indicators according to warning threshold, proposed the coping strategies should be taken when the early warning system of logistics market has issued an early warning signal. In this paper, the design of a computer system to achieve an early warning system of the logistics market operation. Then, this article elaborated four specific aspects concerned on the early warning system of logistics market run-time: the operational processes of the early warning system of logistics market, the problems and policy recommendations of Operation, the release of early warning information, the comparison of early warning system and the National Bureau of Statistics business climate index.The building of the early warning system of logistics market discussed in the paper was with a larger reference value and practical significance to the practice of early warning of the logistics market. |
