Scenario Analysis Of Ecological Footprint On China's Motorcar Industry

With the rapid growth of China's motor output and population, there's no doubt that China's motorcar industry is facing unprecedented pressure from environment and energy. In order to realize China's motorcar industry sustainable development, environment and energy issues must be consciously and wisely solved. Ecological footprint (EF) model which has been paid worldwide attention can be used to quantificationally analysis the degree of sustainable development and has been put into research areas concerning ecological footprint, ecological capacity, and energy and environment indexes. By means of EF model we can transform the consumption of energy and resources and the output of green house gases of China's motorcar industry into areas of biological production land. So, the pressure can be quantified and visualized, it is more convenient for us analyze and study.This paper divided the life cycle of China's motorcar industry into three phases and calcuated the ecological footprint of China's motorcar industry between 1997 and 2007. The evaluation results were analyzed in detail. The results indicated that the total EF of the industry kept rising between 1997 and 2007, the EF of 2007 was 3.14 times of 1997, and the average annual growth rate was 12.12%.Afterwards, 6 different development scenarios were constructed for China's motorcar industry which included high, middle and low speed scenarios for motorcar population growth rate, and under each of the three scenarios tow different energy and resources consumption scenarios were constructed. The EF under the 6 scenarios were calculated and analyzed.Finally, this paper summed up several conclusions and then put forward some countermeasures for China's motorcar industry's future development based on the foregoing EF evaluation results and analysis.