| This paper researches on the economic effects resulted from the China-SACU Free Trade Area, using the Walrasian CGE model-- GTAP model, that is GTAP version 7.0, which includes 113 countries (regions) and 57sectors with a data based on the year 2004, using a comparative statically simulative analysis. By setting two types of trade liberalization scenarios, this paper analyzes the economic impacts resulted from the China-SACU Free Trade Area on the trade flows, trade balance, terms of trade, output, import and export of various industries and macro-economy of China, SACU and other countries in the world. The innovations of this paper are the innovation of the selected subject and that of selected methods. First of all, in the context of the China's actively participating in various bilateral and multilateral regional trade liberalizations, many Chinese scholars have studied the economic effects of such Free Trade Area as ASEAN, with little attention to those of the China-SACU Free Trade Area. Secondly, with the success of China-African Cooperation Forum, a lot of scholars are interested in the economic and trade cooperation and regional trade liberalization between China and Africa. There are many qualitative researches, while a lack of empirical researches. Therefore, the paper is at some extent innovative taking into consideration the above two reasons.This paper includes five parts. The introduction section gives a strict definition of regional trade liberalization and its economic effects, and analyzes the differences between CGE model and the GTAP model as well as the contact, thus giving a more detailed description of the purpose, tools and methods of the empirical research, that is, a detailed and complete framework. The theoretical analysis part then analyzes the direct and indirect effects defined in the introduction, the static and dynamic effects. Literature part then reviews geographically classified literatures at home and abroad which used a similar or the same research tools and methods so as to learn something from them.On the basis of the above theoretical analysis and literature review, the specific empirical research is divided into two parts. One is the study on the trade relationship between China and SACU, using TII, OBCand ESI. Various indices show that there is a room for further improvement of trade relations and that the trade structure is complementary between China and SACU. It is a better way, therefore, to improve trade relations with SACU through regional trade liberalization, economic and trade policies, thus improving the trade benefits of both sides. The other part analyzes the economic effects of trade liberalization between China and SACU, simulating with integrated regional database. Finally the paper puts forward some policy recommendations, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the future of the regional trade liberalization between China and SACU. |
