Statistical Analysis Of Chinese Economic Fluctuation Characteristics

With the strengthening of international co-operation and increasing international trade, the political and economic relations between the countries have been much closer than ever. The volatility of one country's economy will not only affect the health of its own, but will also affect the stability of the world economy. Since the United States broke out the sub-prime crisis in 2007, the world economy has entered a new contracted business cycle and it continues. Accompanied by the difficulties and challenges brought by the current complicated international economic environment, China has experienced some huge natural disasters such as cold, snowstorms, earthquakes in 2008. How the Chinese maintaining steady growth in the economy have become a new research area. Grasping the characteristics of Chinese business cycles much deeper helps us to determine the situation of China' s economic performance accurately, which is also important to keep the continued economic stability.The paper is based on the classical perspective of business cycle and the modern perspective of business cycle respectively, it explores the characteristics of business cycle in China of different levels by HP filtering technology, building a second-order moment analysis and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models. The paper explores general characteristics of business cycles in China by analyzing classical characters of business cycles from the classical business cycle view, including economic fluctuations in the long term and short-term , as well as in the level of reform and opening up trend before and after. From the modern business cycle view, the paper analyzes the general features in economic fluctuations and the characteristics of economic fluctuations in conditions of different stages. And we draw some meaningful conclusions: Stability, continuity and non-symmetry of Chinese economic fluctuations have increased gradually, and the main economic variables extent a certain association mobility with each other; the volatility of different stages in business cycle are different, which are mainly reflected in the main economic variables with conditional heteroskedasticity, and the actual GDP growth rate, the actual export volume growth and actual growth rate of the total expenditure with non-symmetry , as well as the growth level and volatility of its growth rate with a certain correlation.