Research On The Investment Strategy Of Technological Innovation Based On Option-game

There always exist a lot of uncertain factors in the investment decisions of Technological innovations. These uncertainties entitle firms a lot of dynamic managerial flexibility. Because the value of managerial flexibility of technological innovation investment are not considered by the classical investment evaluating approaches,these traditional approaches can't make scientific appraisal of the investments of technological innovations. On the other hand,the real option method considers the value of the decision flexibility,but ignores reactions of competitors. Therefore real option method also can't evaluate investment decision of technological innovation fully. By comparison, option game approach can make good combination of real option pricing theory and game theory. It can not only take the managerial flexibility of investment into consideration, but also pay attention to reactions of rivals. Thus,it can offer more scientific analytical approach and evaluation model for technological innovation investment of firms.This article makes a compare analysis of investment decision method, then models option-game model of firms'technological innovation investment under asymmetric demand, obtains preemption, sequential and simultaneous investment strategy equilibriums, and analyses the factors which have an effect on the investment strategy. We find that different level of comparative advantage will result in different equilibrium game strategies. At last, we introduce the technological uncertainty into the standard technical innovation investment model, and consequently gain the superior time-to-invest under the technical uncertainty condition. More over, we analyses the technological uncertainty and its correlation coefficient's influence on the time-to-invest.