Research On The System Of The Surveillance And Pre-warn Of The Economic Prosperity Of Civil Aviation

It is of current concern that the civil air aviation industry is developing rapidly along with the whole social economic entities.To satisfy the growing demands of the market,promote the advantage of the kernel competition of the CA enterprise,and avoid developing too fast or too slow to hamper the prosperity of the industry,it would be necessary for the authorities to exert effective control over the industry,and supervise abnormal fluctuations of the development of the whole industry.Research on the surveillance and warning of the economic prosperity could play an important role in making macro-control policiesBased on the current research and theory of the economy prosperity model,this thesis, combined with the real-time data of civil air transportation industry,contributes to the surveillance and warning of the prosperity of civil air aviation industry.With the comprehensive analysis of the cycling features of civil air transportation indicators and establishing indicators system,we could recognize different types of these indicators:lagging,simultaneous,and anteceded indicators.The implementation of the nonlinear cointegration algorithm to extrapolate the short-term fluctuation of these indicators has been proved by statistical data from the past few years.Through the prosperity signal model,the outcome of the extrapolation could be translated into the prosperity signals.The prosperity signals derived from prediction model would provide the administration of CA industry efficient proofs in drafting macro-control policies.