The Study On The Reasons Of Chinese Real Estate Price's Boom And Its Impact To Economy

On the one side, this thesis researched the reason of real estate price's boom, and pointed out the way that government implements macro-control. On the other side, this thesis researched the impact on economy from real estate price's boom, and clarified the need of government's macro-control. Firstly, the thesis researched the impact on economy from real estate price's boom, which will cause imbalance of gross demand, inflation and serious financial risk. Through the regression of the quarterly data from 1998 to 2007, the thesis proved the important effect which real estate's price takes to inflation. From the research the thesis draw a conclusion: the government need to macro control the real estate price. Then, from two sides of demand and supply the thesis analyzed various factors which caused the real estate price's rising from 1998 to 2007. Demand factors include dwelling demands and invest demands. Supply factors include local government's monopoly on ground, developer's area oligarch cahoots, developer's stocking up ground and sale limiting. The first two factors caused high natural monopoly in Chinese real estate market which is the most important reason of real estate market lacking supply. After the theory analysis, the thesis researched the panel data in 31 provinces from 1998 to 2006, and computed Lenar Index, which can be an evidence of high monopoly. Through researching the reason of real estate price's boom, the thesis can answer how to implement real estate macro control. Finally, the thesis gave three policy based on the practical condition: tax control policy, indemnificatory house control policy and price limiting policy.