Rearch On The Risk Between Holding Ship And Controlling Ship Under The Shipping Price Fluctuation

As China's market economic systems are gradually established and perfect, the foreign trades are expanding, Chinese shipping markets are more open. The business model of shipping companies had also taken place changing to some extent. In recent years, COSCO, China Shipping's senior leaderships have put forward the "From the holding ship to controlling ship conversion" strategy of the shipping business. The shipping companies break the traditional model which simply pursuit their own assets expanding in number, yet through the ship leasing, emphasizing the conversion from the absolute ownership to the actual controlling, To improve control ability of assets and the operational ability of assets. The shipping companies, adpting to the changing of market, flexibly rent or lease ships to optimizing fleet structure and improving competitiveness and operational efficiency in the shipping market. With the market operation expanding and complex, the operational risks also are increasing. So, it is very significant for the shipping companies to study the risk between the holding vessels and the controling vessels.The thesis, firstly, introduces the theory of risk, such as the definition, characteristics, sources of risk and several methods of risk measurement. The thesis also combines the unique risk characteristics of shipping business and operating models between holding vessels and controling vessels of the shipping companies. Then, basis on these basic concepts, The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) is introduced to measure VaR and CVaR of the loss rates of shipping price fluctuations. The conclusion is that the risk value VaR and CVaR under the POT are more precise than the risk value under the normal distribution assumption.The thesis analysis the systematic risk and non-systematic risk of the holding vessels. Moreover, the advantage and disadvantage of rented vessels are introduced. By analyzing of risk factors, the shipping price fluctuation is considered the main reason caused the risk of shipping business. At the same time, the cost-benefit analysis of shipping business, under the shipping price fluntuation, is used between the holding vessels and the controlling vessels. Further demonstrated, that the shipping price fluctuation is the main reasons of uncertainty in shipping business. Finally, based on the results of analysis, some of measures and proposal are suggested to avoid the risks of shipping business between the holding demonstrated, that the shipping price fluctuation is the main reasons of uncertainty in shipping business. Finally, based on the results of analysis, some of measures and proposal are suggested to avoid the risks of shipping business between the holding vessels and controlling vessels.