Empirical Analysis Of The Effect Of RMB Appreciation On The Surplus Of Sino-US Trade

On July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced the nation's start of a market-based, regulated floating exchange rate regime pegged to a basket of currencies.The new exchange rate system was started with a profound historical background. Through the analysis of the reasons for the appreciation of the RMB, the writer find that the United States as the main force to put pressure on the RMB, takes Sino-US trade surplus as the reason to require the appreciation of the RMB, and some other developed countries also more or less get the same requirements. Based on analysis of the United States as the main targets, the article verifies that the Sino-US trade surplus is not the result of underestimated RMB, but the structural differences in Sino-US trade.The article explains the definition and currency weights of the new exchange rate, and analyzes the RMB nominal exchange rate and real effective exchange rate, makes empirical analysis of the effect of RMB appreciation on the surplus of Sino-US trade before and after the start of the new exchange rate, and gets conclusions as follow: RMB exchange rate isn't the reason of the surplus of Sino-US trade before 2005, which rejected the United States take the surplus of Sino-China trade as the reason of accusing the exchange rate system of China; and in a long term, RMB exchange rate evidently affect the surplus of Sino-US trade, but in a short term, RMB exchange rate isn't the reason of the surplus of Sino-US trade after the start of new exchange rate system.According to empirical analysis of the conclusions, the article tries to give some suggestion for releasing the pressure of RMB appreciation and how to deal with the influence brought by RMB appreciation.