Research On Influence Which Fiscal Policy Made To Current Account Surplus In Our Country

In recent years, continual,long-term,large scale surplus of current account of our country, played positive role on these aspects: changed our country international payment balance and the credit condition, maintained the finance stably and so on. But at the same time, the high quota surplus of current account has initiated trade friction, brought the uncertainty to the economical growth, and reduced the monetary policy validity, enlarged pressure of Renminbi revaluation and so on. Therefore, to prevent the surplus of current account further expanded, our country has adopted financial policy adjustment, foreign exchange system reform, trade policy adjustment and so on, such has obtained certain effect. But, the existing measures have not contained the tendency which the surplus of current account further expands fundamentally. According to the National Foreign Exchange Bureau statistics bulletin: In the first half year 2007, the surplus of current account amounts to 162,900,000,000 US dollars, compared to the same ratio it increased 78%, and the increased range enhances 42 percentage points compared to the same ratio.That, what measures took to be able to prevent the surplus of current account further expanded effectively? The author has carried on the comparative analysis to the correlation theories from the elementary theory of financial policy which related with the current account. Taking this as the foundation, the author utilized statistics, and through the construction of the recursion system of equations which included the government running expenses, the regular income, the total investment, the personal deposit and the current account, to analysis the financial policy influence effect in surplus of current account. The result indicated that, the short-term determining factors affected the surplus of current account mainly: the government deposit, government's capital outlay, government year's end remaining sum debt and so on, taking this as the foundation, the author proposed suggestions to prevent the surplus of current account further expanded.This article was divided into four chapters, and the concrete frame is as follow:First chapter: Introductory remarks. First, this chapter introduced the time background as well as the selected topic significance of the elected topic; second, carried on the summary to the domestic correlation research from reason, the influence and the countermeasure of the surplus of current account, the valid argument about financial policy influence current account, domestic real diagnosis research on relations between the financial policy and current account and so on; Third ,proposed research technique ,the article frame and the logical organization of this article.Second chapter: Elementary theory outline. First this chapter introduced the basic concept of international payment domain related close with this article; Second, analyzed the elementary theory connected financial policy and current account: The national income identical equation, the Keynes principle absorption analysis theory, the coordination policy theory; Finally, carried on the analysis of mechanism that financial policy influenced current account, pointing out that the financial policy mainly through the deposit - investment conduction mechanism, delivers - absorption conduction mechanism, the exchange rate conduction mechanism influenced current account.Third chapter: The real diagnosis analysis on financial policy influenced current account in our country. After the inspection change path of financial policy and current account, this chapter utilized 1986-2005 year index data to construct the recursion system of equations, and through statistical methods we carried on the real diagnosis analysis to financial policy influence current account in our country. The result indicated that the factors of government deposit, government's capital outlay, government year's end remaining sum debt and so on are the important attribute that financial policy influence current account.Fourth chapter: Financial countermeasure of preventing the surplus of current account further expanded. Based on analysis conclusion in the third chapter, the author proposed financial countermeasure to prevent current account worse from adjusting government deposit, controlling government's capital outlay, optimizing public disbursement structure, controlling government debt scale, and adjusting debt redemption way.The main contribution of the article lay in developing the mentality of controlling the surplus of current account:At Present, the domestic theorists and the government decision-making stratification plane mainly proposed countermeasure to prevent current account worse from adjusting policies currency, exchange rate, trade as well as export tax reimbursement. The author thought the financial policy implemented in recent years in our country was the important reason which influence surplus of current account expanded. It might begin from financial policy to prevent the surplus of current account further expanded and make up insufficiency of the existing research and the practice.The insufficiency and further studies direction of this article:Because subject researched spread-eagle finance and taxation, the finance, the international trade ,statistics and so many disciplines, the domestic research correlated are few, in addition author's own limited knowledge, the article also waits for further promotes and the refinement in the theory depth as well as in the real diagnosis analysis assurance. The author extremely will feel grateful that experts, teachers with grant instruction to the mistake or the elaboration appears in the article.I will continue to conduct this question in the follow-up research, and standard analysis method further, promote theory depth, so as to contribute meager strength to prevent current account become worse.