Research On The Influencing Factors Of Stock Price Based On Real Estate Industry

Since the foundation of Shanghai & Shenzhen stock exchange respectively, it have been nearly twenty years for the development of Chinese stock market which has undergone zhanggu period, value investment period and after value investment period. Therefore, the position of value investment sense in the market is constantly emerging. Meanwhile, along with the steady growth and standardization of stock market and deepening of market innovation, the information announcement system is gradually improved and thus ranks of investors are growing steadily. As china has entered WTO and introduced QFII, Chinese stock market is quickening its steps to be geared to international standards. Therefore, the living space of speculation thought has been greatly reduced and the stock price has not depended on the will of market any longer. On the contrary, the basic information of PLC (Public Limited Company) has become the important factors of stock price setting and value investment is gradually becoming the main investment sense.This thesis aims to help investors to make a decision of investment by establishing a stock relative inner value multiple pricing models suitable for Chinese stock market, combining foreign mature stock pricing theory with the actual situation of Chinese share market. It has great practical significance since it will not only help understand the information content of share price included in the basic information of PLC, but also provide theory support for stock pricing on the basis of information of PLC. In view of the complexity of stock market, this thesis tries to apply BP neutral network model with stronger generalized ability to fix the price and has achieved a satisfactory result. Through this research, investors can have a better understanding of role mechanical, dynamics and ways the basic information factors have on the share price in order to find the stock underestimated or overestimated by the market comparing with inner value, thus make an appropriate investment strategy.The first part of this thesis sums up all kinds of stock pricing theory and methods in western stock market; the second part puts forward the research method and system of this thesis in the light of Chinese stock market on the basis of summarizing demonstration research results already have at home and abroad; the third part deduces useful stock relative inner value multiple pricing models and manual neutral network pricing models basing on the financial data in 2006 published by an real estate PLC; the fourth part sums up the characters of factors influencing share price in real estate industry and puts forwards some suggestions for the development of Chinese stock market in the future.According to the empirical analysis, the simulation precision of the many factors model is up to 54.4% at the 0.05 significance level. The training sample of BP model and predicting sample reach respectively 90.41% and 73.99%, However, BP model has better statistical forecast results than many factors model. Therefore, investors can finally determine the value stock for investment having manual neutral network pricing model as the main pricing tool and combining other methods so as to obtain the super profit and reduce the risks.