Price-maker Hydropower Plants' Optimized Strategy And Risk Assessment Based On Game Theory

As a lower cost, hydropower was expected to lowering the cost of the whole power system and adjusting the peaking power. With power market spreading abroad these years, China also began to use market to adjust the power system, in order to lower the cost of system. In such a new environment, how to choose an appropriate strategy to achieve the maximum profit becomes the important problem hydro-power need to solve.In this paper, the current worldwide electricity markets and the status the power plant faced nowadays is introduced firstly, pointing out the market environment for hydropower plants. Then game theory is used to analyses the action of plant of every style in order to guide the strategy of hydro-plant who is a price-maker, then to form a exert line whose aim is the maximum profit. At last, the paper does risk analysis to the optimization process of the corresponding, and pointed out several aspects which need to do depth study in the future.Building the game theory model is the most important part of this paper. Preparing some different models, this paper finds out the model who most adapt to the situation nowadays, and simplify the competition for a two-game, analyses the rationality in theory. All the parameters the model need are based on analyses the data from history. From these parameters we could get a strategy the opponent will have, then to find a best strategy of my own, reaching the goal of mine.A case study is given in this paper, and the risk of the optimization process is done.