| Bank is the core of finance sector which is the core of the economy,therefore the commercial banks take an very important position in economic development.And the banks'operation has been focus of government and scholars.In the years before the end of 1990s,deficiency of liquidity had been the major problem of China's banks because of credit inflation and had credit quality under the planning system.However, in the 21 century,the situation seems return around.Under the loose monetary policy, with the expanding for foreign exchange,and the rather quick rising of the currency supply,the liquidity of the commercial bank has changed from the liquidity deficiency of the commercial bank at past to the liquidity surplus of the commercial bank.Since the end of 2005,the National Central Bank releases that national financial insititutions RMB various savings amounts is 28.7 thousand billion yuan,together compare increase 19%,increase compare 2004 year-ends raised 3 percentage points. The financial institutions is various with 19.5 thousand billion yuan loan surplus amounts,comparing to increase 13%together,increasing to compare 2004 the year-ends are 1.5 low percentage points.2005 year-ends,the financial institution saving difference is extended to 9.25 thousand billion yuan of making the record by 6.32 thousand billion yuan of 2004 year-ends,is about 400%of 2000.For this,the domestic market starts extensive concern the huge gaps in the deposit and lending may cause the problem of the liquidity risk of the commercial bank.As for a country implementing dividing-industry system and with financing being the major business of its commercial bank,the excess liquidity is harmful to the Chinese commercial banks and the Chinese economy itself.Under this background,to our commercial banks liquidity surplus question performance,the origin,the influence thorough analysis as well as to proposed the final solution will make significant theoretical and practical sense.Then from a point of quantitative,selected money supply, loan-to-deposit and loan-to-deposit ratio and the excess of the reserve as analysis object.Combing historical data and indicators to inspect commercial banks of the situation of liquidity surplus,through the analysis of the statistical data,we obtained that commercial banks do exist liquidity surplus situation.In this paper,we overview the existing literature firstly,under the existing terms of literature,many articles had discussion without conducted on the liquidity itself to a clear definition.Because liquidity oneself includes the multi-layered meanings,if enters the analysis directly,may cause some misunderstanding unavoidably.This paper decided to give "liquidity" a reasonable and clearly defined at the beginning, and then defined the liquidity surplus.The liquidity surplus of our commercial bank means that under the loose monetary policy,the deposit of commercial banks are more than the loans,the surplus money has not been fully utilized,and at the meantime the commercial banks have paid a high cost for this.Secondly,this article,based on theories and models,goes deep to the causes of commercial banks liquidity surplus to summarize it.The thesis puts some demonstration on three variables using the data of 2001-2008.It turns out that the three variables truly play important part in the liquidity surplus.Occupying Foreign Exchange is the mainly factor.From the results of the empirical analysis,we find that the large-scale foreign exchange and the decline of the cash requirements' ratio are the major causes.The stock market is not the important cause of the liquidity surplus.Thirdly,this article analysis the influence of the commercial banks' liquidity surplus from three angles.First,the impact of the national economy:the liquidity surplus is not conducive to economic growth in the short term,but in the long term, the abundant liquid assets of commercial banks is conducive to raising the level of economic growth;the excess liquidity will cause excess capita detained within the banking system,but the real economy is lack of adequate capital supported.At the meantime,the surplus liquidity may have vicious impact on the effectiveness of the allocation of the financial resources;and the excess liquidity may lead to asset bubbles.Second,the impact of monetary policy.The liquidity excess of the commercial bank would also enlarge the monetary policy of the National Central Bank performance cost,lower the execution of monetary policy.The commercial bank holds central bank note in great quantities,exceeding reserve,will make the monetary policy conduction's result give discount greatly.Third,the impact of the commercial banks'operation.The excess liquidity will weak commercial bank profit ability and raise the risk of the commercial bank's operation.Finally,by consulting existing study and combining both local and foreign experiences,it brings up suggestion which solves commercial bank liquidity surplus from the angles of macro-economy and bank operation,which will make great sense to development of China commercial bank.On the one hand,improving the external economic environment of commercial banks.First,increaing the domestic demand and decreasing savings' rate.To increasing the domestic demand,we should improve our social security system further and expand the scale of the financial transfer payment.The goal of increasing the domestic demand is raising the economic's level;Second,promoting the foreign exchange institutional reform and furthering the reformation of foreign exchange management system.As the results of the earlier empirical analysis show that the large-scale foreign exchange is the main reason for excess liquidity.Due to excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves,the National Central Bank invest a large amount of base money for maintaining the exchange rate.Just for this reason,the money supply increased doubling.So,the huge-scale of foreign exchange rate is the major cause of the excess liquidity.For inhibiting excess liquidity,we should take effective measures to solving the huge-scale foreign exchange rate accordingly;Third,building a good credit environment and improving the finance market's.The good credit environment can reduces the financial risks greatly.By spliting share structure further. speeding up the development of corporate bond market,simultaneously developing the capital market vigorously and so on.Solving the problem of the commercial banks' excess liquidity is a systematic project,the parties shall cooperate with each other,mutual coordination.Only the various measures can be used integrated,the status of commercial banks' excess liquidity can be ease effectively.To sum up,we should recognize the excess liquidity,make a better use of the macro control effects of the monetary policies,and take it as a chance to solve the prevailing problems in the financial system,thus raising the financial reforming effectiveness and insuring that our macro-economy will develop healthily and smoothly. |
