Research On Risk Analysis And Control Of Shenyang Bus Rapid Transit System

Bus Rapid Transit system as a new, environmentally friendly and economic transportation system is the expansion of urban population caused by traffic jams, poor running, cause serious pollution of the effective measures and other issues. Bus Rapid Transit system, the first application in foreign countries, in recent years the introduction of our country, to play an irreplaceable role. Shenyang City, Liaoning Province as a provincial capital, the hub city in Northeast China, the introduction of Bus Rapid Transit system to smooth operation of urban transport is a sensible and realistic choice.This paper is from Shenyang Bus Rapid Transit System plans to provide theoretical basis for the purpose of starting on the Bus Rapid Transit system were the focus of risk management research. The operation of the project risk analysis must be in the market prospects and the effectiveness of the basis of viability studies to have any meaning, so the article from the market and effective starting point for discussion, community-money market, to ensure effectiveness; and then the risk of the project carried out detailed analysis on the risk identification, estimation, and risk status of the establishment of indicators for evaluation; the end of the risk control measures, monitoring the contents of the risks involved, the objects and processes, control measures, until the risk management plan.Chapter II that the analysis of the market and the effectiveness of the project. A total of three. Section I Analysis of the Bus Rapid Transit System in Shenyang market consumer market behavior and to emphasize customer service and maximize the delivered value. Proposed steps to forecast market demand, the overall population size, flow characteristics and the distribution of the survey was carefully obtained quantitative figures. Market potential given the volume algorithm. Section II provides for the cost-effectiveness analysis of data. Section II calculated economic and social benefits. Selected financial indicators and the discount rate the net present value, payback period, internal rate of return, in accordance with Section I of the survey and calculate the index value forecasts and financial analysis, financial analysis, to determine cost-effectiveness. III Calculation of social benefits, an analysis of Bus Rapid Transit system to the residents of the time and cost of travel, employment, environment and energy, the impact of infrastructure.Chapter III is the main body of the article, and Chapter IV of the project a common interpretation of the risks and discussed. Chapter 3 of the total. Section I describes the meaning of risk identification, proposed method of risk identification, will check the table, flow chart of method, brainstorming, SWOT matrix method used to identify project risks. Section II of the introduction of risk estimation, risk estimation process designed to sum up the nature of the risk, but also the establishment of a risk for the third quarter in preparation for evaluation. Section III risk assessment. Risk status of the qualitative and quantitative analysis and defined. Expert scoring method and a combination of AHP. The design of survey forms, expert scoring, risk estimation based on experience, and for the detailed and quantitative evaluation, the establishment of hierarchy, in accordance with Section III of the summary nature of the establishment of risk indicators, calculated risk indicators hierarchical weight and evidence-based cases, the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation rating assigned.The fourth chapter in the third chapter on the basis of risk analysis of the introduction of risk control. A total of three. Section I of the content from the risk monitoring, control steps to start the process of monitoring the risk control. On the information, market pricing terms of the contract, economic, management, performance and other aspects of risk control points by the process control, risk management plans and stressed that the uncertainty control, and the second chapter of the market and benefit analysis of Chapter III of the nature of the risk of type echoed the survey. Risk Control Strategies Section II the main section I, monitoring this feedback information, the appropriate mean s to deal with risk. Mainly to circumvent the means and financial means. Select means to circumvent the major risk averse, risk mitigation (risk mitigation, risk of isolation, to spread the risks), risk transfer (risk-sharing), the risk of retention of four tools; to take the financial means to select the security and insurance. Section III of the development of the risk plan. Including the risk management plan, the steps, with particular emphasis on three types of control technology, horizontal and vertical communication and control technology, the basic management control technology, as well as technical back-up program. Taking into account the risk of unpredictable, risk-control design, three single-table: change management form, capacity management and power management.Finally, the article concluded. Shenyang Bus Rapid Transit System project promising market, substantial benefits, there is at risk, the need to avoid the need for risk management control strategies, overcome obstacles, deal with various uncertainties. Taken to process monitoring, the level of evaluation, planning control is the solution to project an effective means of risk. The article addressed the prospects for the market, economic and social benefits, risk identification, estimation and evaluation, control and planning.