The Demand Analyze Of Real Estate In Changsha

As an important pillar of the national economy, the real estate has great significance to maintain sustained and healthy development of national economy. The forecast of real estate demand can provide information needed for the government to make macro-control policy of real estate, and also foundation on which developers, investors, operators and consumers to invest and make decision in this area.As the capital of Hunan Province, Changsha is showing great growth potential, which also experienced a real estate boom in recent years. As the center of Urban Agglomeration of "Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan", Changsha was authorized as a "national resource-saving and environment-friendly society building an experimental zone for comprehensive reforms", which will give new impetus for real estate development. However, facing high-density, high-strength macro-control policy, it is a urgent task for enterprises and government to study real estate demand.First, this paper analyses the development of real estate demand in Changsha since 2000 from three perspectives.Second, this paper analyses a variety of factors which have impact on real estate demand, furthermore, we conclude the first three factors which include real estate investment, completed residential areas, GDP by using gray systems methods and SPSS software to analyze real estate demand factors of Changsha.Then, we analyses real estate cycle of Changsha by using spectral analysis method, based on what we conduct three models to forecast real estate demand in the next three years.According to the forecast result, the real estate demand in Changsha will firstly reduce and gradually increase in the next three years, turning out to be a fluctuation.Finally, to solve the problem caused by the fluctuation, government and enterprise need to act as follows: the government should guild the behavior of consumers, control the investment of real estate developer, adjust the structure of commercial building to satisfy the demand of all levels; enterprise should improve their strength, broaden the financing channels to guarantee the stability of capital chain.