The Establishment And Application Of Flood Insurance Loss Assessment Model In China

Flood insurance belongs to catastrophe insurance.Due to the research on catastrophe insurance is much less mature,and insurance companies don't have flood insurance policy in China,the study of flood insurance is backward relatively.The domestic experts'studies are limited to the qualitative analysis,such as the choice of flood insurance patterns,the establishment of flood insurance systems and so on.But the quantitative analysis,such as the pricing and loss assessment of flood insurance,are very rare.There is no unanimously recognized flood insurance loss assessment model so far.This paper used the GIS and DEM models to analyze the flooded region,which combined with the results of survey on the region's buildings vulnerability.Then predicted the county's flood insurance loss ,with a view to provide some suggestions on developing flood insurance.The purpose of my thesis is to investigate the problem of China's flood insurance loss assessment.Centering on this theme,this paper doing research from three aspects.Firstly,we analyzed the insurability of flood risk and concluded that under the condition of implementing mandatory flood insurance,building multi-level risk compensation mechanism and developing single risk flood insurance policy, flood risk is insurable.Then designed the flood insurance policy's coverage.Based on the different characteristics of floods,the insurer will be only responsible for the losses of buildings,indoor properties and public facilities which result from heavy rain floods,lake floods and storm surge.The coverage is limited to a certain amount,which also has a deductible.Secondly,we collected the flood losses of the county over the years,and divided the insured property into comprehensive and meticulous classes.In accordance with different uses and construction types,we classified the buildings.With this classification,we investigated the buildings.We compared the research results with the history data of the county ,then made certain adjustments to get the vulnerability of buildings and indoor properties.Finally,we used the GIS software and DEM elevation model to the get the adjusted flood insurance assessment model.We rewrite the formula of flood insurance loss assessment as follows,flood insurance loss =flood hazards factor*vulnerability of the insured property*insurance value*insurance structure. Then used this model to predict the flood insurance loss of county A.The results are as follows, under the consumption of underwriting one in 20 years or more of flood risk,all buildings and indoor properties facing flood risk are insured under flood insurance policy without deductible,the county's flood insurance loss is 20,447,860yuan;and with a deductible ratio of 5% the county's flood insurance loss is 19,425,467yuan.Meanwhile,according to the results we draw the flood insurance loss probability curve,and concluded that it is similar to lognormal distribution.